JAKARTA – Analysts are forecasting a significant potential for the Indonesian stock market, represented by the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), to stage a robust rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as the index experienced a notable decline over the past week.
Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas, elucidated that historical data reveals the IHSG typically shifts into a bullish trend as it enters the October-December period. This positive outlook is further bolstered by expectations of a low-interest-rate environment by the end of the year.
However, the market is currently grappling with challenges stemming from domestic socio-political stability. Should these conditions resolve favorably, banking and property sector stocks, which have seen recent downturns, are poised for attractive rebound opportunities, according to Suryanata.
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“Our strategy is ‘buy on weakness,’ with a particular focus on big-cap banking, property, consumer staples, and selective commodities sectors. Several global catalysts, such as MSCI rebalancing, potential Fed rate cuts, crucial US economic data, and even Trump’s proposed 19% tariff on Indonesia, continue to provide supportive tailwinds,” Liza told Bisnis on Monday, September 1, 2025.
Liza also highlighted that the government’s reassuring communication efforts, coupled with pro-stability policies, could effectively mitigate market uncertainty. These measures are crucial for maintaining the inflow of foreign capital into the stock market.
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During today’s opening session, the composite stock index initially plunged by 3.31% to 7,571. Nevertheless, the index managed to stage a recovery by the end of the day, narrowing its closing losses to 7,736.06, a decrease of 1.21%.
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. – TradingView
Meanwhile, Reza Priyambada, Director of Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia, observed significant foreign selling pressure on major bank stocks like BBCA and BMRI during the close of trading last week.
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Last Friday, August 29, 2025, PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) saw its shares decline by 0.84% to Rp4,730. Foreign investors divested Rp423 billion worth of shares while only acquiring Rp254 billion, resulting in a net foreign sell of Rp169 billion for BMRI.
Concurrently, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA), a primary magnet for foreign capital within the Djarum Group, corrected by 3% to Rp8,075. Domestic investors purchased Rp1.58 trillion in shares and sold Rp463 billion. In contrast, foreign investors sold Rp1.81 trillion worth of shares but only bought Rp691 billion, culminating in a substantial net foreign sell of Rp1.12 trillion for BBCA.
“The conditions can certainly turn positive; this is entirely plausible. Once market participants perceive a more conducive environment and no potential for a repeat of the events seen over the past two days, they will undoubtedly re-enter the market, capitalizing on previous weaknesses as an opportune entry point,” Reza affirmed.
Echoing this sentiment, Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, emphasized that the IHSG’s initial 3% drop at opening could present an excellent ‘buy on dip’ opportunity for investors, encouraging them to acquire shares when prices are experiencing short-term corrections.
However, the prospect of a rebound remains highly dependent on developments in domestic sentiment, particularly concerning political and security stability.
“We are also closely observing the President’s statements in response to public aspirations. The crucial step is the implementation of these aspirations. Inshallah, political conditions can become more conducive, thereby initiating capital inflows. Our domestic macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust; however, this strength absolutely needs to be complemented by robust security stability,” Nafan stated.
Among the banking stocks recommended by Mirae Asset to capitalize on the IHSG’s rebound momentum are BBCA, with a short-term target price (TP1) of Rp8,825, a medium-term TP2 of Rp9,250, and a long-term TP3 of Rp12,325.
Additionally, PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. (BBTN) is recommended with a TP1 of Rp1,350, a TP2 of Rp1,405, and a TP3 of Rp1,610.
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Summary
Analysts are forecasting a robust rebound for the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite its recent decline. This positive outlook is supported by historical bullish trends in the October-December period and expectations of a low-interest-rate environment. However, the market’s recovery heavily depends on improvements in domestic socio-political stability, which would particularly benefit banking and property sector stocks.
The recommended strategy is to “buy on weakness,” focusing on big-cap banking, property, consumer staples, and selective commodities. Global catalysts like potential Fed rate cuts and government stability policies are expected to provide tailwinds. Despite recent significant foreign selling pressure on major bank stocks such as BBCA and BMRI, analysts believe investors will re-enter the market once conditions stabilize, with Mirae Asset Sekuritas recommending BBCA and BBTN.