Foreign Capital Outflow: Indonesian Bonds and Stocks Experience $9.76 Billion Sell-Off

JAKARTA – The Indonesian financial market experienced a significant outflow of foreign capital totaling Rp9.76 trillion (approximately US$625 million) between September 29 and October 2, 2025, during this week’s trading days. This marks a notable divestment by international investors from the nation’s financial assets.

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Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Communications Department, revealed that foreign investors predominantly sold off assets in both government securities (SBN) and the domestic stock market. This trend highlights a shift in investor sentiment during the period.

“Based on transaction data from September 29 to October 2, 2025, non-residents recorded a net sell of Rp9.76 trillion. This consisted of a net sell of Rp3.31 trillion in the stock market and Rp9.16 trillion in the SBN market, offset by a net buy of Rp2.71 trillion in Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities [SRBI],” Denny elaborated in a statement quoted on Saturday, October 4, 2025. These figures provide a detailed breakdown of where foreign funds exited and entered.

Looking at the broader picture, the year-to-date period from January 1 to October 2, 2025, shows an even larger cumulative outflow of foreign investor capital from Indonesia’s financial markets, reaching a substantial Rp157.44 trillion. This extended trend indicates sustained pressure on the capital account throughout the year.

The year-to-date figures further detail a net sell of Rp53.43 trillion in the stock market, a net sell of Rp128.4 trillion in SRBI, and a net buy of Rp24.39 trillion in the SBN market. These long-term statistics underscore the persistent challenges in attracting and retaining foreign portfolio investment.

In parallel with these developments, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium saw a slight improvement, registering at 78.87 basis points (bps) as of October 2, down from 83.04 bps on September 26. This decline suggests a marginally reduced perception of sovereign risk by the market.

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Furthermore, the yield on the benchmark 10-year SBN edged down slightly to 6.3% on Friday, October 3, 2025, from 6.32% on Thursday, October 2, 2025. For comparison, the 10-year US Treasury Note yield stood at 4.083% on Thursday, October 2, 2025, illustrating the yield differential between the two markets.

Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate opened weaker at Rp16,610 per US dollar on Friday, October 3, 2025, compared to its closing position of Rp16,580 per US dollar on Thursday, October 2, 2025. This depreciation reflects the currency’s sensitivity to capital movements and broader market sentiment.

Denny concluded by affirming that “Bank Indonesia continues to strengthen coordination with the government and relevant authorities, while optimizing its policy mix strategy to support Indonesia’s external economic resilience.” This statement reinforces the central bank’s commitment to maintaining stability amidst evolving global and domestic financial dynamics.

Summary

Indonesian financial markets experienced a significant foreign capital outflow totaling Rp9.76 trillion (US$625 million) between September 29 and October 2, 2025. This divestment predominantly affected government securities (SBN) and the stock market, recording net sells of Rp9.16 trillion and Rp3.31 trillion respectively, partially offset by a net buy in Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities. Cumulatively, foreign investor capital outflow for the year-to-date period reached a substantial Rp157.44 trillion by October 2, 2025.

In parallel, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit Default Swap premium saw a slight improvement, declining to 78.87 basis points, and the benchmark 10-year SBN yield edged down to 6.3%. However, the Rupiah exchange rate depreciated, opening at Rp16,610 per US dollar. Bank Indonesia affirmed its ongoing coordination with the government and optimization of its policy mix to bolster Indonesia’s external economic resilience amidst these market dynamics.

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