BRI Danareksa Sekuritas anticipates robust growth for Indonesia’s consumer sector in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025). This optimistic outlook is driven by projected revenue increases from several major consumer issuers, including industry giants like PT Mayora Indah Tbk. (MYOR), PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. (ICBP), PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. (INDF), and PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk. (UNVR).
In their comprehensive research report, titled ‘3Q25 Preview: Navigating Modest Revenue Growth Through Cost Discipline,’ BRI Danareksa Sekuritas analysts Christy Halim and Sabela Nur Amalina project a 2.8% year-on-year (YoY) growth for the consumer sector.
The analysts’ revenue growth projections factor in a substantial 7.3% YoY increase for Mayora Indah (MYOR) and a solid 3.9% YoY for Indofood CBP (ICBP). Furthermore, Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) is expected to expand by 3.6% YoY, largely benefiting from a lower base in the previous year. Meanwhile, Indofood (INDF) is anticipated to record a more modest 0.2% YoY growth, according to their research published on Friday, October 10, 2025.
Despite these positive growth forecasts, analysts also anticipate continued pressure on sales margins through Q3 2025. A primary culprit is the persistent volatility in commodity prices, which significantly inflates raw material costs. For instance, a 34.6% year-to-date (YtD) surge in coffee prices during 2025 is expected to weigh heavily on Mayora’s costs, while a 35% YtD rise in cooking oil prices will likely impact ICBP’s noodle production expenses.
Adding to the challenges, the depreciation of the Rupiah throughout 2025 presents a mixed bag for different issuers. For Mayora, the weaker Rupiah could potentially yield foreign exchange gains, whereas Indofood CBP might experience the opposite effect, facing increased costs for imported inputs.
Nevertheless, despite these headwinds, the analysts project the sector’s core profit to grow by a respectable 3.7% annually for the first nine months of 2025, demonstrating underlying resilience.
Looking beyond immediate challenges, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas anticipates a positive overall performance for the consumer sector throughout 2025. Key positive catalysts are expected to emerge during the year-end season, coupled with early orders for the upcoming Eid al-Fitr in 2026.
Historically, the fourth quarter significantly contributes between 25% and 26% to the consumer sector’s annual revenue. Leveraging this trend, analysts forecast moderate full-year consumer sector revenue growth of 4.8% YoY, driven by higher sales volumes and an increase in average selling prices.
“Overall, we maintain an overweight stance on this sector,” stated the analysts, citing attractive valuations and potential catalysts from government stimulus programs, which could pave the way for a stronger consumer sector in 2026.
Amidst these conditions, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has issued a “Buy” recommendation for ICBP, setting a target price of Rp12,000. This recommendation stems from ICBP’s attractive valuation, its defensive instant noodle segment, and an expected reduction in sales margin pressure.
This target price represents a substantial 35.59% potential upside from ICBP’s recent depressed trading levels at the close of last week’s trading on Friday, October 10, 2025. Notably, ICBP was among the top 10 laggards last week, contributing 3.71 points that weighed down the IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) performance.
Beyond ICBP, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas also recommends a “Buy” for MYOR with a target price of Rp2,500, and for INDF with a target price of Rp9,300. For Unilever Indonesia (UNVR), the recommendation is a “Hold” with a target price of Rp1,750 per share.
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Summary
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas anticipates a 2.8% year-on-year growth for Indonesia’s consumer sector in Q3 2025, driven by projected revenue increases from issuers like MYOR, ICBP, UNVR, and INDF. Despite expected pressure on sales margins from commodity price volatility and Rupiah depreciation, the sector’s core profit is still projected to grow by 3.7% annually for the first nine months of 2025.
The firm maintains an “overweight” stance on the sector, forecasting a moderate 4.8% YoY full-year revenue growth for 2025, boosted by year-end and early Eid al-Fitr orders. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas issued “Buy” recommendations for ICBP (target Rp12,000), MYOR (target Rp2,500), and INDF (target Rp9,300), alongside a “Hold” recommendation for UNVR (target Rp1,750).