Flooring Guide by Cinvex – JAKARTA – Shares of PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBNI) are poised for a quicker rebound, bolstered by its Q3 2025 performance. BBNI stands out among major banks due to its robust liquidity and superior efficiency.
Handy Noverdanius, an analyst at CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia, emphasizes operational efficiency as BBNI’s key strength. Its cost-to-income ratio (CIR) of 46.1% surpasses the average of other large banks, which hovers around 48%-49%.
“BNI has consistently maintained cost efficiency, primarily through process digitalization and disciplined operational expense control. This provides a buffer for sustained profitability despite margin pressures,” Handy noted in his analysis on Thursday, October 30, 2025.
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Notably, BBNI reported a net profit of Rp15.1 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, a 7.3% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. However, this achievement represents 73.5% of CGS Sekuritas’ full-year target, underscoring BNI’s resilient performance amidst weakening interest margins.
On the revenue front, BBNI sustained a stable net interest income (NII) of Rp29.3 trillion, while non-interest income surged by 12.4% YoY to Rp17.2 trillion. This increase reflects the strengthening of BNI’s non-interest income diversification strategy, particularly from treasury, syndication, and transaction fee businesses.
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According to Handy, the combination of these factors propelled total revenue to a slight increase of Rp46.5 trillion, indicating healthy growth despite high interest rate pressures.
In terms of intermediation, BBNI’s loan disbursement grew by 10.5% YoY to Rp812.19 trillion, while third-party funds (DPK) rose by 21.4% YoY to Rp934.3 trillion. This surge in deposits was primarily driven by increased current accounts and time deposits, including government fund placements.
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Handy explained that this intermediation performance led to a decrease in the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) to 86.9% from 95.3% in the previous year, indicating ample liquidity and significant room for credit expansion.
This contrasts with other major banks, which still report LDRs above 90%, limiting their expansion potential and exerting pressure on funding costs.
Although the net interest margin (NIM) decreased to 3.8% due to credit yield pressures, the cost of funds (CoF) was successfully suppressed to 2.8%, demonstrating BNI’s effective management of its funding structure.
Handy anticipates that this efficiency trend will continue through 2026, especially if benchmark interest rates begin to decline.
Regarding asset quality, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 2.0%, with a high coverage ratio of 222.7%, while the cost of credit (CoC) remained at 1.0%. This reflects BNI’s prudent risk management capabilities.
The capital structure also remains solid, with a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 21.1% and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7%.
CGS Sekuritas projects that BNI’s net profit will reach Rp20.7 trillion by the end of 2025, with potential growth of approximately 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of net interest margins and the stabilization of funding costs.
“BNI demonstrates an optimal balance between credit growth, cost efficiency, and asset quality. With ample liquidity, disciplined risk management, and continuously increasing non-interest income, BNI has the potential to lead the recovery of the Indonesian banking sector next year,” Handy concluded.
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg (October 30), a majority of analysts – 32 out of 36 – covering BBNI shares recommend a “buy” rating. The remaining analysts suggest “hold” and “sell” recommendations, with two analysts each.
The consensus target price for BBNI shares, according to Bloomberg analysts, is Rp5,044 per share for the next 12 months. This target price represents a potential return of 14.4% from the latest price of Rp4,410 per share.
In the past week, BBNI shares have shown a positive trend. However, year-to-date (YtD), with a price of Rp4,410 per share, BBNI shares are still down by 3.92%.
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Summary
Shares of Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) are expected to rebound quickly, supported by its Q3 2025 performance, strong liquidity, and superior operational efficiency. BNI’s cost-to-income ratio (CIR) is better than its competitors, and it has shown stable net interest income and a surge in non-interest income, driven by its diversification strategy.
BNI’s loan disbursement and third-party funds have increased significantly, leading to ample liquidity and potential for credit expansion. Analysts project that BNI’s net profit will grow in 2026 due to recovering net interest margins and stable funding costs. Most analysts recommend a “buy” rating for BBNI shares, projecting a potential return of 14.4% over the next 12 months.