Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) concluded trading last week by achieving a new all-time high (ATH) closing price for two consecutive days. The benchmark index now stands robustly at 8,394.59.
This remarkable rally begs the question: how can the IHSG sustain its positive momentum and sidestep potential profit-taking actions, especially after investors have reaped substantial gains from their stock portfolios?
Angga Septianus, Community and Retail Equity Analyst Lead at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), suggests that the likelihood of profit-taking intensifies when the composite index breaches its ATH, particularly if accompanied by specific market-triggering sentiments.
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“A key area of focus will be the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after all the stimulus provided to the community to boost purchasing power shows its effects. The optimism of Finance Minister Purbaya regarding the fourth-quarter GDP, supported by abundant liquidity, serves as a significant positive sentiment,” Angga informed Bisnis, in a statement quoted on Sunday (November 9, 2025).
The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) reported that state-owned bank associations (Himbara) had disbursed liquidity injection funds from the government amounting to Rp167.6 trillion by October 22, 2025. This figure represents 84% of the government’s total placement funds.
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This realization marks a substantial increase of approximately 48% compared to the Rp113 trillion disbursed by October 9, 2025, which constituted 56% of the total government placement funds.
With these disbursements, the Ministry of Finance remains optimistic that industrial credit growth can surge to 10% year-on-year (YoY) by the end of 2025. This would be a notable improvement from the 7.56% YoY growth recorded before the announcement of the liquidity injection.
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By September 2025, an increase in the money supply (M2) was already evident, coupled with the accelerating trend of industrial credit growth reaching 7.7% YoY.
However, Angga cautioned that if the macroeconomic data for Q4 2025 fails to meet expectations, several stock sectors could become vulnerable to profit-taking. This risk is particularly high for sectors where constituent stocks have already experienced significant price surges.
“Nevertheless, the IHSG’s ascent also appears to be bolstered by foreign buying activity and positive sentiment arising from the inclusion of several stocks in the MSCI. This suggests that the rally could be more resilient,” he added.
Examining economic data, Indonesia’s GDP growth in Q3 2025 stood at 5.04% YoY. While this level surpassed the 4.95% YoY growth in Q3 2024, it showed a slight slowdown compared to Q2 2025, which registered 5.12%.
Considering these figures and the IHSG’s new record high, Capital Market Observer Reydi Octa noted that the relationship between the stock market and broader economic developments is not currently very significant.
“For instance, even with slower GDP growth, the high participation of both retail and local institutional investors has maintained the IHSG’s stability recently,” Reydi explained.
According to him, the primary drivers of stock prices currently are liquidity, fund flows, and overall market optimism and pessimism.
“However, looking ahead, if purchasing power continues to weaken, eventually impacting the financial performance of issuers and reflected in fundamental analysis, then stocks could lose investor interest, leading the IHSG to begin a correction,” he concluded.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) recently reached a new all-time high, closing at 8,394.59 for two consecutive days. This strong performance is significantly supported by government stimulus, with state-owned banks disbursing Rp167.6 trillion in liquidity injection funds by October 22, 2025. This move aims to boost purchasing power and fosters optimism from the Ministry of Finance regarding robust fourth-quarter GDP growth.
While the risk of profit-taking exists, the IHSG’s rally is further reinforced by foreign buying activity and the inclusion of several stocks in the MSCI. Analysts caution that macroeconomic data for Q4 2025 failing to meet expectations or a sustained weakening of purchasing power could make certain stock sectors vulnerable. Currently, liquidity and fund flows are identified as primary drivers for stock prices, maintaining market stability.