JAKARTA – The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has recently been hitting new records, particularly over the past month of trading. The crucial question for investors now is: can the IHSG maintain its dazzling performance until the end of the year?
Despite a slight dip of 0.29% to 8,366.51 on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, the IHSG has demonstrated remarkable resilience. It remains firmly in positive territory, boasting an impressive 18.17% gain year-to-date (YTD) since the first trading day of 2025. This strong showing is underscored by a series of new records set in recent weeks. On Monday, November 10, 2025, the IHSG achieved an all-time high (ATH) intraday of 8,478. Just days prior, on Friday, November 7, 2025, it closed at a new ATH of 8,394.59.
Amidst these record-breaking highs, Farell Nathanael, an Equity Research Analyst at OCBC Sekuritas, anticipates a reasonable short-term correction. “There is a possibility of a correction later, as we see the current level is quite high,” Farell stated after a Premium Market Talks event in Jakarta. He added, “So, we think perhaps in the short term, there is a chance of a correction, but it will remain above 8,000.” This expected downturn, he explained, is largely due to some of the stocks that have propped up the IHSG throughout 2025 beginning to show signs of weakness, with their valuations becoming somewhat expensive.
Looking beyond the immediate future, OCBC Sekuritas offers an optimistic forecast for the Indonesian stock market.
Citigroup Forecasts IHSG to Rise 10% in 2026, Breaking the 9,250 Level
OCBC Sekuritas projects a strengthening trend for the IHSG starting in early 2026, with the index confidently expected to rebound to at least 9,100 next year. Farell elaborated that the IHSG’s performance up to November 2025 represents a strategic opportunity for stock accumulation, particularly given the solid national macroeconomic conditions prevailing despite negative global economic sentiments. He further affirmed, “We expect the IHSG to reach 9,100 in 2026. Blue-chip stocks in the IDX30 and MSCI indices are still undervalued.”
Several government social assistance programs are providing robust support to the economy, subsequently fueling a bullish trend in the stock market. These initiatives include free nutritious meal programs, the target of building 3 million homes, accelerated government investment facilitated by Danantara, and promising industrial downstreaming projects.
In terms of broader economic outlook, OCBC Sekuritas anticipates Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to stand at 5% for the entirety of 2025. However, 2026 might see a slight moderation, with GDP growth projected to slow to 4.8%. This anticipated slowdown is attributed to the expectation that government economic stimulus measures may not yet yield their full desired results. Inflation, on average, is projected at around 2% for 2025, rising slightly to 2.7% in 2026.
Regarding monetary policy, Farell predicts that Bank Indonesia (BI) will implement two interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, in November and December 2025. He explained the implications: “This means if BI’s interest rates continue to fall, money will flow into equity. From low-risk zones, investors will shift to higher risk in search of better yields.”
Meanwhile, Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas, pointed to several key factors driving the IHSG’s recent record-setting spree. “The main driver is consistent foreign net buy. Focus is on big caps such as BREN [PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk.] and other companies within the Barito conglomerate group, jumbo banks, and ‘old school bluechips’ like TLKM [PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk.], GGRM [PT Gudang Garam Tbk.], and HMSP [PT HM Sampoerna Tbk.],” Liza told Bisnis on Tuesday, November 11, 2025.
Complementing these factors are robust domestic fundamentals, including above-expectation economic growth, an expansive manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a strong trade balance, and the rebalancing catalyst of the MSCI index. Kiwoom Sekuritas projects that the IHSG could reach a target of 8,600 by the end of 2025, provided that foreign capital inflows continue, the rupiah exchange rate remains controlled, and domestic macroeconomic data stays solid.
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended to solicit the buying or selling of shares. Investment decisions are solely at the discretion of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has recently achieved new all-time highs, recording an impressive 18.17% year-to-date gain despite a recent minor dip. OCBC Sekuritas expects a short-term correction as valuations appear high, but forecasts the index will remain above 8,000. Kiwoom Sekuritas attributes these record highs to consistent foreign net buying in large-cap stocks, robust domestic fundamentals, and MSCI index rebalancing, projecting the IHSG to reach 8,600 by the end of 2025.
Looking to 2026, OCBC Sekuritas anticipates a rebound for the IHSG to at least 9,100, viewing current levels as a strategic opportunity for accumulation amid strong national macroeconomic conditions. This positive outlook is reinforced by government social assistance programs and an expected two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by Bank Indonesia in late 2025, which could drive funds into equities. Citigroup also forecasts the IHSG to rise 10% in 2026, surpassing 9,250.