JAKARTA – Mandiri Sekuritas forecasts a substantial climb for the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in 2026, targeting 9,050, with a more bullish scenario potentially pushing it to 9,350. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by projections of significant corporate profit recovery.
According to Kresna Hutabarat, Deputy Head of Equity Research at Mandiri Sekuritas, companies under the firm’s review are expected to collectively achieve a 14% aggregate net profit growth in 2026. This represents a dramatic positive turnaround from an estimated 12% contraction anticipated for the current year.
“This recovery will once again serve as crucial capital to attract and drive more enthusiastic investment into the stock market going forward,” Hutabarat stated on Wednesday, December 3, 2025.
Beyond the robust projected earnings per share (EPS) growth, Kresna also highlighted several domestic economic developments poised to positively influence Indonesia’s capital market next year. A key factor is the anticipated effectiveness of government fiscal incentives, which are expected to bolster investor confidence in the Indonesian capital market and invigorate the business performance of listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
Separately, MNC Sekuritas projects the IHSG to reach 9,000 in 2026.
Kresna further elaborated on other promising economic indicators. He noted positive trends emerging in domestic bulk cement sales and wholesale motorcycle sales volumes. Additionally, the number of active members in BPJS Ketenagakerjaan, the national social security program for employment, has seen a recent increase, signaling growth in formal sector employment.
“So, we are already observing early indications of improvement that will support positive sentiment in our stock market moving forward,” Kresna affirmed.
Overall, Mandiri Sekuritas identifies a strong positive momentum that is expected to continue into 2026, forming the foundation for enhanced IHSG performance in the coming year.
“We are maintaining an overweight recommendation for the Indonesian stock market, with our base case IHSG target price at 9,050 for 2026, and a bullish case projection of 9,350,” he added.
From a sectoral perspective, Kresna specified that consumer, banking, telecommunications, and retail sectors are driving the overweight rating for the IHSG. Furthermore, Mandiri Sekuritas has also assigned an overweight rating to the heavy equipment, gold, and copper sectors. Conversely, neutral ratings were assigned to the nickel, oil and gas, automotive, and property sectors.
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Summary
Mandiri Sekuritas forecasts the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to reach 9,050 by 2026 in its base case, with a bullish scenario potentially pushing it to 9,350. This optimistic projection is underpinned by an expected 14% aggregate corporate net profit growth in 2026, a significant recovery from an estimated 12% contraction this year. The firm anticipates this turnaround will attract increased investment into the stock market. Separately, MNC Sekuritas also projects the IHSG to reach 9,000 in 2026.
Beyond corporate earnings, Mandiri Sekuritas identifies domestic economic developments as positive influences, including anticipated effective government fiscal incentives and improving trends in bulk cement and wholesale motorcycle sales. Growth in formal sector employment, indicated by active BPJS Ketenagakerjaan members, also supports positive sentiment. Consequently, Mandiri Sekuritas maintains an “overweight” recommendation for the Indonesian stock market, specifically highlighting the consumer, banking, telecommunications, retail, heavy equipment, gold, and copper sectors.