Flooring Guide by Cinvex – JAKARTA — The Indonesian stock market experienced significant foreign outflows throughout 2025, with major stocks like PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) and PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk. (EMTK) bearing the brunt of the selling pressure. This trend marked a notable dynamic in the nation’s equity landscape.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), foreign investors recorded a substantial net sell of Rp938.13 billion on the final trading day of the year, Tuesday (December 30, 2025). This pushed the total foreign net sell in the Indonesian stock market to a remarkable Rp17.34 trillion for the entire year of 2025.
Several prominent stocks were particularly impacted by this wave of foreign selling in 2025. BBCA shares, for instance, registered the highest foreign net sell, amounting to a staggering Rp28.2 trillion over the year.
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The trend extended to other major banking institutions. Shares of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. (BMRI) saw foreign net selling of Rp13.34 trillion, while PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk. (BBRI) recorded Rp9.33 trillion in foreign net selling. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. (BBNI) also experienced foreign net selling of Rp4.29 trillion throughout 2025.
Beyond the banking sector, other notable companies faced similar pressures. PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk. (ADRO) recorded foreign net selling of Rp4.92 trillion, PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) saw Rp4.25 trillion in outflows, and PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF) registered Rp2.63 trillion. EMTK, too, recorded a significant foreign net sell of Rp2.21 trillion over the year.
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Paradoxically, despite these substantial foreign outflows, the Indonesian stock market delivered a stellar performance in 2025. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed the year with an impressive 22.13% gain year-to-date (YTD), reaching 8,646.94 on its last trading day, Tuesday (December 30, 2025).
The IHSG also celebrated numerous record-breaking achievements. Iman Rachman, President Director of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, highlighted that the BEI reached an all-time high (ATH) of 8,711 on December 8, 2025. Furthermore, he announced that the BEI’s market capitalization had successfully surpassed Rp16,000 trillion, underscoring the market’s robust growth.
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“This year, we saw 24 all-time highs. This achievement is not solely the result of the efforts of OJK, SRO, and the Exchange, but a collective contribution from all of us, including every stakeholder in the capital market,” Iman stated during the year-end capital market press conference in Jakarta on Tuesday (December 30, 2025).
Throughout 2025, trading data consistently showed an upward trend compared to the end of 2024. The average daily transaction value stood at Rp18.06 trillion, accompanied by a daily transaction volume of 30.27 billion shares and a daily transaction frequency reaching 1.78 million transactions, signaling heightened market activity.
Ekky Topan, an Investment Analyst at Infovesta Kapital Advisori, explained that the significant foreign outflow in 2025, particularly from jumbo bank stocks, was primarily driven by persistently high benchmark interest rates. However, looking ahead to 2026, a notable shift in foreign fund movements is anticipated.
“The direction of foreign fund flows in 2026 has a strong probability of returning to large-capitalization stocks, especially within the prominent banking sector,” Ekky shared with Bisnis recently, outlining a potential reversal in investment trends.
Indeed, a shifting pattern has already begun to emerge since late 2025. Shares of BBCA and BMRI started to attract substantial foreign net buying, indicating an initial rebalancing phase. This follows a period of nearly a year characterized by minimal foreign activity in these stocks, with capital rotating towards non-bank sectors instead.
In 2026, the prospect of sustained foreign inflow into jumbo bank stocks is expected to strengthen, driven by three pivotal factors.
First, a more accommodating global interest rate environment will serve as a crucial catalyst. The banking sector is highly sensitive to reductions in funding costs, directly impacting net interest margins (NIM) and fostering positive sentiment-driven capital inflows.
“Should The Fed embark on a more consistent easing phase, global investors are likely to increase their exposure to defensive and liquid stocks such as BBCA, BMRI, and BBRI,” Ekky elaborated, highlighting the appeal of these robust banking assets.
Second, favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions are set to create a conducive environment for the banking sector. The outlook for credit growth, the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, and expectations of a potential reduction in the BI Rate collectively form a powerful combination.
Compared to second-tier banks, jumbo banks possess greater leverage to capitalize on the recovery of NIM and asset quality. This positions them as prime candidates for foreign capital inflow when evaluated on a risk-adjusted return basis.
Third, current valuations of these major bank stocks remain attractive. BBCA and BMRI are trading below their historical average valuations, suggesting ample room for a re-rating when their earnings are projected to return to positive growth in 2026.
“This confluence of factors suggests that foreign inflow will likely be more stable and strategically directed towards jumbo banks compared to previous years,” Ekky concluded, painting a positive outlook for the sector.
Miftahul Khaer, an analyst at Kiwoom Sekuritas, concurs, forecasting that foreign fund movements in 2026 will be more selective and fundamentally driven. He believes this aligns with the receding global interest rate uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing from both The Fed and Bank Indonesia.
Miftahul projects that major banking stocks, including BBCA and BMRI, are poised to attract renewed foreign fund inflows in 2026. This trend was already hinted at towards the close of 2025, as foreign capital gradually began to flow back into these large-cap banking assets.
“The return of foreign funds to prominent banks like BBCA and BMRI at the end of 2025 is, we believe, an initial signal of rebalancing. This trend holds the potential to continue into 2026, especially if growth catalysts such as improving credit quality, robust asset performance, and rebounding profitability margins materialize,” Miftahul stated, emphasizing the conditional optimism.
Key sentiments expected to shape foreign fund movements in 2026 include the stability of the Rupiah exchange rate, the trajectory of global interest rate policies, Indonesia’s economic growth prospects, and the evolving dynamics of global trade relations.
Summary
Foreign investors recorded a significant net sell of Rp17.34 trillion in the Indonesian stock market throughout 2025, heavily impacting major banking stocks like BBCA, BMRI, and BBRI due to persistently high benchmark interest rates. Despite these substantial outflows, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) demonstrated a stellar performance, gaining 22.13% and achieving 24 all-time highs, with market capitalization surpassing Rp16,000 trillion.
For 2026, a notable shift is anticipated, with foreign funds expected to return to large-capitalization banking stocks. This projected inflow is driven by a more accommodating global interest rate environment, favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, and attractive current valuations of key bank stocks. Signs of this rebalancing, with foreign net buying in BBCA and BMRI, were already observed towards the end of 2025, indicating a potential for more stable and strategically directed foreign investment.