Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA – Stocks of Indonesian renewable energy (EBT) issuers have been experiencing volatile movements, influenced by a significant global development: the United States’ decision to withdraw from a prominent international clean energy organization. According to analyst reports, a key vulnerability for renewable energy companies, especially those in the geothermal sector, lies in the shifting landscape of global commitments and policy frameworks.
This market uncertainty follows an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, January 7, 2026. The order dictates the cessation of US support for 66 global organizations, notably impacting key entities within the clean energy sector like the Renewable Energy Agency and the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century.
The immediate impact of this global news was visible in the Indonesian stock market. By the close of trading on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, shares of PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk. (PGEO), a prominent geothermal energy manager, had fallen by 1.67%. Similarly, PT Maharaksa Biru Energi Tbk. (OASA), an issuer with a portfolio of waste-to-energy (PSEL) projects, saw its stock price decline by a notable 9.71%.
The downturn was even more pronounced for PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk. (TOBA), an issuer in the midst of transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy, which experienced a sharp drop of 10.42%. Meanwhile, PT Barito Renewable Energy Tbk. (BREN), boasting a diversified portfolio of geothermal and wind power plants, saw a more modest dip of 0.52%.
However, indications of a potential rebound or stabilization emerged during intraday trading on Friday, January 9, 2026. As of 1:43 PM Western Indonesian Time (WIB), BREN’s stock price remained under slight pressure, down 0.79% to Rp9,475. In contrast, PGEO held steady at Rp1,180, while TOBA began to show signs of recovery, strengthening by 0.29% to Rp885. OASA also saw a significant gain, rising 5.38% to Rp392, suggesting a mixed market response following the initial shock.
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Amidst these market fluctuations, Devi Harjoto, an Equity Analyst at OCBC Sekuritas, provided deeper insights into PGEO’s prospects. In her research, Harjoto identified governmental policy changes concerning the commitment to clean energy transformation as a primary risk for PGEO, given its status as a leading clean energy issuer.
Despite the identified risks, Harjoto issued a “buy” recommendation for PGEO, setting a target price of Rp1,500. This optimistic outlook is underpinned by several positive catalysts: the company’s ambitious long-term expansion strategy to reach a capacity of 1.7 gigawatts (GW) by 2028-2033, its robust financial cash flow, and its strong access to low-cost financing. However, she cautioned that this positive projection is not without its own set of significant investment risks.
“Changes in government policy, suboptimal production, vulnerability to financing risks stemming from higher capital expenditure (capex), and potential delays in expansion plans,” Harjoto specifically outlined, underscoring the delicate balance between growth potential and inherent challenges in the clean energy sector.
Echoing the concerns about governmental policy shifts, Rob Jackson, Chairman of the Global Carbon Project, weighed in on the US withdrawal. He warned that America’s decision to pull back from clean energy organizations could significantly impede global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. As quoted in The Guardian, Jackson stated, “This move gives other countries a reason to delay their actions and commitments,” highlighting the potential domino effect on international climate initiatives.
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Summary
The US decision under President Donald Trump to withdraw support from 66 global organizations, including key clean energy entities, has caused volatile movements in Indonesian renewable energy (EBT) stocks. This executive order, signed on January 7, 2026, immediately led to declines for prominent issuers like PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk. (PGEO), PT Maharaksa Biru Energi Tbk. (OASA), and PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk. (TOBA) on January 8. However, intraday trading on January 9 showed a mixed response, with some stocks like OASA and TOBA beginning to recover, while PT Barito Renewable Energy Tbk. (BREN) and PGEO remained under slight pressure or held steady.
Despite policy risks highlighted by OCBC Sekuritas analyst Devi Harjoto, she issued a “buy” recommendation for PGEO, citing its ambitious long-term expansion strategy, strong financial cash flow, and access to low-cost financing. Harjoto also cautioned about inherent investment risks like government policy changes and potential expansion delays. Globally, Rob Jackson, Chairman of the Global Carbon Project, warned that the US withdrawal could significantly hinder international efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, potentially giving other countries reasons to delay their climate commitments.