JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is finally showing encouraging signs of recovery. Over the past week, the index rallied a significant 3.49%, demonstrating resilience amidst strong global headwinds. This upturn offers a much-needed reprieve following recent market turbulence, which saw the index rattled by MSCI rebalancing concerns and sustained pressure on large-capitalization stocks.
Despite this positive momentum, the market remains on edge. Moody’s recently downgraded the outlook for several prominent big-cap stocks, notably including four major national banks, signaling persistent caution. Concurrently, FTSE Russell announced a delay in adjusting the composition of its Indonesian indices, pending the outcome of ongoing market reforms. Importantly, this postponement has been clarified as distinct from the country classification issues that previously impacted the market via MSCI.
Domestically, the landscape is still marked by a continued outflow of foreign funds. Over the past week, the IHSG recorded a significant net outflow of IDR 6.1 trillion. A major contributor to this was PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BCA), whose shares corrected by 6.19%, experiencing an outflow of IDR 3.8 trillion. Nevertheless, robust performance from several key conglomerate stocks helped to mitigate deeper market declines, demonstrating underlying resilience.
Hari Rachmansyah, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), observes that the market is currently navigating a highly selective phase. He noted, “Investor apprehension regarding the negative implications of AI could potentially sustain high volatility on Wall Street, even if the directional bias of movement remains largely constructive as long as economic data continues to indicate stable growth.” This statement was made in an official release on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
Market participants are now keenly focused on Bank Indonesia’s upcoming interest rate announcement scheduled for February 19. The trajectory of the BI Rate is expected to be a pivotal determinant of sentiment, particularly for the sensitive banking and property sectors. For retail investors, the stability or fluctuation of interest rates will directly influence critical decisions regarding fund allocation across stocks, deposits, and other investment instruments.
Encouragingly, consistently expansive credit growth data offers a glimmer of hope for the real sector, indicating that both business and consumer demand remain robust. Furthermore, the forthcoming Q4 2025 financial reports are anticipated to provide a fresh benchmark for evaluating the health and performance of various issuers, guiding investor decisions moving forward.
From a technical analysis perspective, the IHSG remains constrained within the 8,300 range. This level has proven to be a formidable resistance point that the index has yet to breach. Immediate support is identified around the 8,120 mark. Until the 8,300 barrier is decisively surpassed, the index’s movement is likely to remain largely sideways, characterized by limited volatility.
For the trading period of February 18-20, immediately following the Chinese New Year holiday, IPOT has issued several key stock recommendations. Their top picks include: PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN), with a recommended buy area at 1,365, a target price of 1,555, and a stop-loss at 1,280. Next is PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF), suggested at 1,895, targeting 1,945, with a stop-loss at 1,855. Finally, PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM) is recommended at 1,140, aiming for 1,285, and a stop-loss at 1,090. Additionally, the Premier ETF IDX High Dividend 20 (XIHD) is highlighted as an attractive option, particularly given its composition of dividend-paying stocks, making it highly relevant during the current interim dividend season.
Hari Rachmansyah concluded by cautioning investors against hasty decisions. He emphasized, “In the prevailing market conditions, investors are strongly advised to adopt a more selective approach, prioritizing fundamentally strong stocks that demonstrate clear and consistent performance support.”