Flooring Guide by Cinvex JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) concluded its first trading session on Monday, March 30, 2026, in negative territory, grappling with a persistent combination of global and domestic sentiments that continue to burden the market.
The IHSG opened with a significant dip, falling 76.52 points or 1.08% to 7,020.53 at the start of trading on Monday. Data from RTI at 09:28 AM even indicated a sharper decline, with the index plummeting 118.41 points or 1.67% to 6,978.
By the close of the first trading session, the IHSG ultimately settled at 7,070.402, recording a 0.376% decline.
Andrey Wijaya, Head of Research at RHB Sekuritas, explained that the primary pressure emanated from external factors. He specifically pointed to the sustained high volatility in global oil prices and the ongoing expectation of global interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period, or ‘higher for longer.’ This environment has significantly strengthened the US dollar and triggered a substantial outflow of funds from emerging markets, including Indonesia.
“Domestically, investors are also maintaining a ‘wait and see’ stance regarding the direction of fiscal policy and the stability of the rupiah exchange rate amidst these external pressures,” Wijaya stated on Monday (March 30, 2026).
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This confluence of sentiments prompted market participants to engage in profit-taking, particularly in large-capitalization stocks, which consequently exerted further downward pressure on the IHSG’s movement.
Looking ahead, the IHSG’s trajectory is anticipated to remain constrained in the short term. Wijaya noted that, in terms of valuation, the IHSG is currently nearing its lower boundary but has not yet amassed sufficient strength for an immediate reversal.
“In the short term, the IHSG is likely to exhibit sideways movement with continued high volatility, as global factors such as interest rate directions and oil prices have not yet stabilized,” he added.
Despite these immediate challenges, the medium-term outlook for the index is regarded as reasonably positive. Provided that domestic fundamentals remain robust, characterized by economic growth hovering around 5% and well-controlled inflation, the IHSG stands a good chance of gradually regaining strength.
Key Factors Influencing the IHSG’s Future Direction
Furthermore, a multitude of factors will decisively shape the future direction of the IHSG, acting as both catalysts for growth and suppressants on the market.
On the positive side, potential tailwinds for the IHSG could emerge from decreasing global interest rate expectations or the implementation of actual interest rate cuts. Additionally, the stabilization of global oil prices, a renewed inflow of foreign capital into emerging markets, and robust domestic fundamentals—especially within the consumption and banking sectors, coupled with strong corporate earnings growth—are poised to be pivotal catalysts.
Conversely, the risk of further weakening continues to loom. A sustained surge in oil prices could potentially fuel inflation and strain fiscal positions, while a strengthening US dollar and rising global yields might trigger renewed foreign capital outflows. Policy uncertainties, both on the global and domestic fronts, also represent critical factors that investors must closely monitor.
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Achmad Yaki, Head of Online Trading Support (OTS) at BCA Sekuritas, emphasized that geopolitical sentiment is a major factor weighing on the market. The protracted conflict in the Middle East has intensified concerns over the stability of global energy supplies, ultimately impacting investor risk perception.
“The pressure largely stems from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and concerns surrounding domestic fuel supply,” he elaborated.
Beyond external factors, the domestic market has also not yet received strong catalysts. To date, there has been no discernible significant policy from the government or regulators capable of stimulating short-term economic growth.
Technical Pressure: IHSG Poised for Limited Rebound
From a technical perspective, the IHSG’s movement is still assessed to be within a bearish trend. Nevertheless, the possibility of a short-term rebound remains open, particularly if the index manages to hold above key support levels.
Achmad indicated that the IHSG’s crucial support area lies between 6,750 and 6,820. As long as these levels are successfully maintained, the IHSG still holds potential for a limited upward movement.
“If it strongly holds within that range, the IHSG has the potential to rebound, with the nearest resistance levels at 7,125 to 7,355,” he clarified.
Despite this potential for a short-term upswing, investors are advised to exercise caution. The primary trend of the IHSG still leans bearish, meaning any gains are likely technical in nature and not yet supported by significant fundamental shifts.
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