JAKARTA – The movement of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) this week stands at a crucial juncture. Escalating tensions in Iran pose a continued risk of pressure on foreign capital flows, while domestically, capital market reform efforts are fostering new optimism for the market.
Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) reveals that the IHSG’s performance remained sluggish throughout March 2026. In the first week, the IHSG plummeted 7.89% over five trading days. This lackluster performance persisted into the second week of March, with a 5.91% decline, followed by a 0.43% drop in the third week, a 0.14% weakening in the fourth week, and finally, a 0.99% fall leading into early April 2026.
The IHSG’s subdued trajectory is evident from the substantial foreign capital outflow, which amounted to IDR 33.83 trillion year-to-date in 2026. This indicates that various global and domestic sentiments, ranging from the Iran-US conflict to ongoing improvements in the nation’s capital market, continue to dampen investor interest in domestic investments.
Analysts Chory Agung, Reza Diofanda, and Abida Massi Armand from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas explained that the IHSG has the potential for a rebound this week, provided it can maintain its position above the 6,950 support level. Technically, current conditions suggest a period of consolidation and a weakening of bearish momentum, which could pave the way for the IHSG to strengthen towards the 7,150–7,200 range. However, on the flip side, the IHSG also faces the possibility of further declines.
Potential IHSG Rebound on Iran War De-escalation; Keep an Eye on Stocks like EXCL to INCO
“The IHSG currently displays potential for bearish continuation with a descending triangle pattern. Selling pressure remains dominant, as indicated by lower highs and a re-weakening MACD. This pattern would be confirmed if prices fall back below 6,950,” they stated in a research note on Sunday (April 5, 2026).
The market is expected to closely monitor developments in the Iran-US conflict this week. Analysts suggest that former President Trump’s statement about a potential attack on Iran within the next 2-3 weeks signals an escalation of the conflict rather than a swift resolution. This statement disappointed markets, which had previously hoped for peace, triggering a roughly 5% surge in oil prices to US$106 per barrel and subsequent weakening in global stock markets.
“According to analysts, the rupiah’s depreciation could continue, potentially reaching IDR 17,500 in 2026 if the conflict persists. This scenario would also impact the stock market, potentially driving the IHSG below the 7,000 level amid massive net foreign selling,” the research added.
Domestically, the market will focus on the government’s implementation of eight national austerity policies, a response to global pressures. These policies are projected to generate significant savings, with IDR 6.2 trillion from the work-from-home (WFH) policy for civil servants and IDR 130 trillion from budget efficiencies.
Meanwhile, the Indonesia Stock Exchange’s (BEI) completion of four key agendas to strengthen capital market transparency is viewed as a positive long-term sentiment boost. However, in the short term, sentiment is likely to remain mixed as the market’s attention is still fixated on the Iran conflict.
The four capital market transparency agendas, executed by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Self-Regulatory Organizations (SROs), include providing data on share ownership above 1%, implementing High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) announcements, strengthening the granularity of investor classification in KSEI share ownership data to a total of 39 classifications and investor types, and increasing the minimum free float threshold to 15%.
“In the long term, these measures represent a positive transformation, elevating Indonesia’s market standards, transparency, and investability. This opens up opportunities for increased foreign capital inflows, aligning with the deadline set by global indices in May 2026,” the analysts concluded.
Conversely, the market is expected to harbor concerns regarding stocks with high ownership concentration or limited free float, as these could be at risk if they fail to meet MSCI criteria. In its announcement on Thursday (April 2, 2026), BEI identified at least nine stocks with dominant ownership concentration according to its methodology. Prominent names on this list include BREN, DSSA, AGII, and RLCO, which was listed on the exchange late last year.
“Consequently, the IHSG is likely to exhibit consolidative movement with a limited bias, awaiting further developments,” the research stated.
Significant Impact
Senior Market Chartist at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, emphasized that BEI’s successful implementation of four out of eight capital market improvement actions is a crucial factor that can drive positive sentiment for the Indonesian capital market. Nafan views these actions as a testament to BEI’s and the regulator’s consistent commitment to ensuring the liquidity of stocks available to investors, which in turn facilitates global investors’ selection of domestic equities.
“These four proposals are, in essence, a game changer. This is critical because we are dealing with MSCI, which represents the golden standard for global fund managers,” Nafan told Bisnis on Sunday (April 5, 2026).
Despite these positive developments, Nafan believes that the IHSG remains in a phase of bearish consolidation in the short term. Technically, the index has formed a declining bar with decreasing trading volume, yet signals from the Stochastic and RSI indicators still show positive momentum. Nafan recommends investors select stocks with strong fundamentals, focusing on undervalued assets. Additionally, he advises identifying stocks showing signs of reversal and rigorously implementing risk management strategies.
“From a technical standpoint, the IHSG is indeed in a bearish consolidation phase. However, in the long run, these actions by BEI are excellent for stimulating capital inflow, as Indonesia’s weighting in emerging markets could potentially increase again,” he affirmed.
Furthermore, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas recommended shares of PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk. (JPFA) with a target price of IDR 2,500–IDR 2,600, PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk. (TAPG) with a target price of IDR 1,910–IDR 1,985, and PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. (MBMA) with a target price of IDR 755–IDR 805 per share.
OJK-BEI Ready to Meet MSCI
The Financial Services Authority (OJK), in collaboration with the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and PT Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI), has successfully completed four key agendas aimed at strengthening transparency within the Indonesian capital market. These reinforcement agendas are integral to the solution proposals submitted to Global Index Providers, including MSCI.
Moving forward, the authorities plan to re-engage in communication with these index providers, such as MSCI and FTSE. Hasan Fawzi, Chief Executive of Capital Market, Derivative Finance, and Carbon Exchange Supervision at OJK, stated that the four agendas are part of the eight-point Action Plan for Accelerating Indonesian Capital Market Integrity Reform, launched by OJK and Self-Regulatory Organizations (SROs) on February 1, 2026.
Hasan affirmed that the policies adopted by OJK and the SROs in finalizing these four proposals are consistent with standards and practices observed across various global jurisdictions. “Thus, the four proposals submitted by Indonesia to Global Index Providers have been completed and finalized as per the targeted schedule. We will continue constructive communication and engagement with Global Index Providers, and gather feedback from investors,” Hasan explained on Thursday (April 3, 2026).
The successful completion of these four transparency-strengthening proposals is expected to foster healthier liquidity and enhance the quality of price discovery in the domestic stock market. Ultimately, this is anticipated to sustain investor confidence and boost the credibility and attractiveness of the Indonesian capital market on a global scale.
As part of the accelerated reform of Indonesia’s capital market integrity, BEI has adjusted its Exchange Regulation No. I-A, which includes strengthening free float policies and corporate governance. These adjustments became effective on March 31, 2026. The changes encompass a revised definition of free float shares, an increase in the minimum free float threshold to 15%, and more comprehensive regulations concerning the classification and provisions of free float shares, particularly within the IPO process.
On the same occasion, Acting President Director of BEI, Jeffrey Hendrik, highlighted that the increased free float provisions also represent an effort to align with the best practices of various other international exchanges. “By maintaining an ownership threshold of 5 percent, in line with global standards, this policy is expected to enhance both liquidity and investment appeal in the Indonesian capital market for both domestic and global investors,” Jeffrey stated.