Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is anticipated to be significantly influenced by prevailing geopolitical sentiment this week, particularly concerning the escalating dynamics of the Middle East conflict and developments in the Strait of Hormuz. This volatile environment positions several key stocks as focal points for investors throughout the coming week.
According to Imam Gunadi, Equity Analyst at Indo Premier Sekuritas, despite the scheduled release of various economic data, the overall market direction will predominantly hinge on unpredictable geopolitical headlines. Beyond these external factors, he highlighted several other crucial data points that market participants should closely monitor.
From China, investors eagerly await the release of the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with a consensus expectation of 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. These figures are pivotal as they will offer critical insights into China’s future monetary policy direction, especially regarding its strategy to sustain the country’s robust growth momentum, which has remained notably solid to date.
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“Should there be no changes, it would signal that authorities are maintaining a ‘wait and see’ stance. However, a reduction could indicate increasing economic pressure, necessitating additional government stimulus,” Imam explained on Monday, April 20, 2026.
Shifting focus to the United States, March’s retail sales data will also capture significant attention. The consensus forecasts a 1.3% month-on-month growth, an increase from the previous 0.6%. Imam emphasized the importance of this data, as it directly reflects the strength of consumer spending, which serves as a primary engine for the US economy.
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If the actual retail sales figures meet or surpass expectations, it could reinforce the narrative of a resilient US economy, even amidst ongoing energy-related pressures. Conversely, overly robust numbers might sustain expectations for higher interest rates, a scenario typically less favorable for broader market sentiment.
Domestically, Bank Indonesia’s interest rate decision will be a key determinant, with a consensus expectation of 4.75%. It is largely anticipated that BI will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% to effectively safeguard exchange rate stability and keep inflation within its controlled targets.
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The market will also meticulously scrutinize the central bank’s forward-looking policy tone, particularly to detect any shifts in its approach to addressing mounting external pressures.
Finally, Imam pointed to the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data as another compelling indicator, with a consensus projecting a decrease of approximately 1 million barrels. This data frequently functions as a short-term gauge for assessing the supply-demand dynamics within the global oil market.
A reduction in crude oil stocks typically signals tighter supply conditions, which can help sustain elevated oil prices. In the current environment, this data becomes even more pertinent as the market remains highly sensitive to evolving energy supply concerns.
For the week of April 20-24, 2026, Imam forecasts the IHSG will remain in a consolidation phase, exhibiting a sideways and inherently volatile trend. This is attributed to the enduring dominance of geopolitical sentiment and the inconsistent return of foreign fund inflows into the market.
From a technical analysis perspective, the 7,773 area represents the immediate and crucial resistance level. A successful breach of this point could pave the way for further upward momentum. However, as long as the index remains capped by this level, the potential for a pullback warrants cautious monitoring.
Meanwhile, the 7,308 level stands as a vital support level, poised to cushion the market against downward pressure, particularly if negative global sentiment intensifies.
“Overall, the IHSG movement is likely to remain within this established range, with the market demonstrating a highly reactive posture to external developments,” Imam concluded.
For the upcoming week, Indo Premier Sekuritas expresses a preference for three specific stock picks: PGEO, ASII, and DSSA.
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