Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA — The Indonesian rupiah displayed strength on Monday morning, appreciating by 34 points or 0.20 percent to reach Rp 17,155 per US dollar. This marked an improvement from its previous closing level of Rp 17,189 per US dollar. Lukman Leong, a currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, attributed this rupiah strengthening to the government’s recent decision to increase the prices of non-subsidized fuels.
“The rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the US dollar following the government’s move to raise non-subsidized fuel prices, a measure considered capable of easing the burden on the State Budget (APBN),” Leong explained to ANTARA in Jakarta on Monday.
PT Pertamina (Persero) implemented new prices for several non-subsidized fuel products—namely Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex—starting Saturday, April 18, 2026. These adjustments reflect a significant hike in Jakarta, with Pertamax Turbo rising to Rp 19,400 per liter from Rp 13,100 per liter on April 1, 2026. Similarly, Dexlite was set at Rp 23,600 per liter, up from Rp 14,200 per liter, and Pertamina Dex reached Rp 23,900 per liter, compared to its previous price of Rp 14,500 per liter. These price changes were not exclusive to the capital, as similar adjustments were also noted across various other provinces.
Pertamina’s official website clarified that these general fuel price adjustments align with the basic price formula used for calculating the retail selling prices of common gasoline and diesel fuels distributed through public refueling stations (SPBU). This formula adheres to the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Decree No. 245.K/MG.01/MEM.M/2022, which amends Decree No. 62 K/12/MEM/2020. However, despite these domestic policy steps, the rupiah faces negative sentiment stemming from ongoing uncertainties surrounding the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
As reported by Anadolu, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that the Strait of Hormuz has reverted to its “previous condition” under the control of “armed forces,” directly referencing the persistent US blockade of Iranian ports. The IRGC emphatically stated that until the US “fully restores the freedom of movement for ships entering and leaving Iran,” the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will remain under strict supervision and unchanged. This geopolitical tension adds a layer of complexity to currency market dynamics.
Lukman Leong noted that investors are largely adopting a “wait and see” approach, anticipating the outcomes of two crucial events: potential US-Iran negotiations scheduled for Monday and the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors’ Meeting (RDG BI) on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. He further highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran talks, stating that their occurrence remains unconfirmed and subject to conflicting reports.
Despite the ambiguity, it is possible that US and Iranian teams will hold a second round of technical negotiations involving their respective teams in Pakistan’s capital in the near future, potentially as early as today. These technical teams are expected to convene in Islamabad for the next round, aiming to finalize an agreement on the weeks-long conflict between the US and Iran, a dispute that has significantly impacted global energy supplies and daily life across the Middle East. Such high-stakes discussions underscore the precarious nature of regional stability.
Regarding the BI RDG, Leong anticipated that the central bank would likely maintain its current interest rates and reiterate its previous rhetoric. However, he also observed the rupiah’s recent weakening trend, suggesting a potential for interest rates to be raised if the depreciation persists. This delicate balancing act by BI is crucial for maintaining economic stability amidst external pressures.
IDX Composite Also Strengthened
Mirroring the rupiah’s positive movement, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite (IHSG) also saw gains on Monday morning, even as market participants adopted a “wait and see” stance ahead of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) interest rate policy announcement. The IHSG opened strong, climbing 29.40 points or 0.39 percent to 7,663.40, while the LQ45 Index, comprising the top 45 blue-chip stocks, advanced 1.83 points or 0.24 percent to 760.70. This upward trend indicates cautious optimism in the equities market.
Imam Gunadi, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), provided a technical outlook in his Jakarta research on Monday. He identified the 7,773 level as a crucial near-term resistance; a successful breach here could pave the way for further gains. Conversely, if the index remains below this level, the potential for a pullback needs to be monitored. On the downside, 7,308 stands as an important support level, acting as a crucial buffer against selling pressure, particularly if negative global sentiments emerge.
For the week of April 20-24, 2026, Imam forecasts that the IHSG will remain in a consolidation phase, exhibiting sideways and often volatile movements. This trend is primarily driven by the prevailing geopolitical sentiment and the inconsistent return of foreign fund inflows, highlighting the fragile nature of market liquidity.
Domestically, the market’s attention will be firmly on BI’s forthcoming interest rate decision. The consensus among analysts suggests that BI is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.75 percent, aiming to safeguard exchange rate stability and keep inflation under control. This consistent approach is expected to provide some certainty in local monetary policy.
Visitors observe a digital screen displaying data on the movement of the IDX Composite (IHSG) at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) in Jakarta. (Republika/Thoudy Badai)
The aforementioned BI Board of Governors’ Meeting (RDG) is scheduled to take place this week, from Tuesday, April 21, 2026, to Wednesday, April 22, 2026, where policymakers will determine the central bank’s key interest rate policy. Imam stressed that “the market will also closely monitor the future policy tone, especially whether there will be any shift in stance in response to increasing external pressures.”
From an international perspective, Imam anticipates that global markets will remain heavily influenced by geopolitical sentiment. This includes, in particular, the evolving dynamics of the conflict in the Middle East and the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz. “Despite economic data releases, the market’s direction will still largely depend on unpredictable geopolitical headlines,” Imam underscored, emphasizing the dominance of external events.
Beyond geopolitical considerations, several other significant data releases warrant close attention. In China, market participants await the release of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The consensus expects the one-year LPR to be 3.0 percent and the five-year LPR to be 3.5 percent. Imam explained that these figures offer insights into China’s future monetary policy, particularly its strategies for sustaining the country’s robust growth momentum. A lack of change would signal authorities maintaining a “wait and see” approach, while a reduction “could indicate increasing economic pressure and the government’s need to provide additional stimulus.”
In the United States, attention will turn to the March 2026 retail sales data, with consensus forecasts predicting a 1.3 percent month-on-month growth, an increase from the previous 0.6 percent. Imam highlighted the importance of this data as it reflects the strength of consumer spending, a primary engine of the US economy. Should the actual figures meet or surpass expectations, he noted, it would bolster the narrative of a resilient US economy, even amid pressures from the energy sector. However, he cautioned that “excessively strong figures could also keep interest rate expectations high, which is generally less favorable for the market.”
Furthermore, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change data is another key indicator to watch, with a consensus expectation of a decrease of approximately 1 million barrels. This data frequently serves as a short-term gauge of supply-demand dynamics in the oil market. “A decrease in stocks typically indicates tighter supply and can sustain high oil prices,” Imam remarked. “In the current context, this data becomes even more relevant as the market is highly sensitive to energy supply issues.”
Looking back at last Friday’s trading (April 17, 2026), European stock markets demonstrated widespread gains. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 2.10 percent, the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.73 percent, Germany’s DAX climbed 2.27 percent, and France’s CAC increased by 1.97 percent.
Across the Atlantic, Wall Street also ended last Friday (April 17, 2026) in positive territory. The S&P 500 advanced 1.20 percent to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq surged 1.52 percent to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a robust gain of 1.79 percent to 49,447.43, indicating strong investor confidence.
Regional Asian stock markets also opened with strength this Monday morning. The Nikkei index rose 575.10 points or 0.98 percent to 59,051.00, the Shanghai index climbed 26.47 points or 0.65 percent to 4,077.89, the Hang Seng index advanced 183.17 points or 0.70 percent to 26,343.50, and the Strait Times index edged up 1.87 points or 0.04 percent to 4,999.80, reflecting a broadly positive start to the trading week in Asia.