Market Outlook: IHSG Shows Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Pressures
JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed the first trading session of the week with a modest gain of 0.22%, reaching the 6,971 level. This slight recovery follows a challenging previous week, which saw the index dip by 2.52% amid a significant foreign capital outflow of Rp5.8 trillion in the regular market. Despite expectations of continued market pressure, analysts suggest that commodity-heavy sectors, particularly crude palm oil (CPO) and related stocks like AADI and LSIP, maintain a bright outlook.
David Kurniawan, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), noted that the stock market is currently navigating a period of moderate risk-off sentiment. This caution is largely driven by external pressures, most notably the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to keep global oil prices elevated.
“Fundamentally, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz exerts considerable pressure by increasing production costs for net energy-importing countries. This, in turn, risks fueling inflation and eroding broader consumer purchasing power,” David explained in his weekly research report released on Monday (May 4, 2026).
Sectoral Impact and Investment Strategy
In this risk-off environment, sectors such as consumer goods and transportation face significant downside risks due to the surge in energy costs. Conversely, nickel and crude palm oil (CPO) commodities are projected to remain resilient, supported by global supply constraints and favorable domestic policies.
Technically, the current market climate suggests that the IHSG may enter a medium-term downtrend, potentially testing support levels between 6,918 and 6,696. Given these dynamics, investors are encouraged to adopt a more defensive stance. Focusing on commodity-based issuers—which offer stronger fundamental resilience—is considered a safer strategy than exposure to sectors vulnerable to rising operational costs.
Recommended Stocks for the Week
IPOT Sekuritas has identified three key stocks to watch during this trading week:
1. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk. (AADI)
- Strategy: Buy
- Entry Price: Rp11,600
- Target Price: Rp12,200
- Stop Loss: Rp11,300
2. PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk. (LSIP)
- Strategy: Buy on pullback
- Entry Price: Rp1,680 – Rp1,700
- Target Price: Rp1,800
- Stop Loss: Rp1,620
3. PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk. (SSIA)
- Strategy: Buy
- Entry Price: Rp1,785
- Target Price: Rp1,960
- Stop Loss: Rp1,700
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investment decisions remain the sole responsibility of the reader. Bisnis.com is not liable for any losses or gains arising from investment decisions made based on this information.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) recently closed with a modest 0.22% gain, despite ongoing global geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that rising oil prices and potential inflation may drive the index toward a medium-term downtrend, prompting a shift in investment strategy toward more resilient sectors.
To navigate this period of market volatility, experts recommend adopting a defensive stance by focusing on commodity-heavy stocks such as AADI, LSIP, and SSIA. These selections are favored for their fundamental strength, providing a safer alternative to sectors vulnerable to the increased operational costs caused by global energy pressures.