The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is facing potential downside risks as it enters trading on Monday (May 11), following a sharp 2.86 percent decline to 6,969 on Friday (May 8).
Analysts at MNC Sekuritas report that the index remains under heavy selling pressure. From a technical perspective, the IHSG is currently positioned within either wave [v] of wave A of wave (2) in the black label scenario, or the initial phase of wave B of wave (2) in the red label scenario.
Regarding the index’s trajectory, MNC Sekuritas noted, “In a worst-case scenario, the IHSG remains vulnerable to a correction toward the 6,645-6,838 range. Conversely, the best-case scenario suggests a potential rebound to test the 7,207-7,418 levels.” Investors looking for opportunities in this market may consider MNC Sekuritas’ top picks for Monday: AADI, BULL, INCO, and MAPA.
Meanwhile, analysts at Phintraco Sekuritas anticipate a volatile trading session ahead. With the index struggling after last week’s significant losses, expectations are set for the IHSG to fluctuate within the 6,850-7,100 range. This volatility is expected to persist throughout a shortened trading week leading up to the long weekend.
Several macroeconomic indicators are set to capture investor attention this week, including the Consumer Confidence Index, retail sales data, and motorcycle sales figures. Furthermore, market participants are keeping a close watch on the upcoming MSCI rebalancing announcement scheduled for May 12, 2026.
Beyond general market sentiment, the government’s plan to implement progressive royalty rates on various metal commodities—including nickel, copper, gold, silver, and tin—has introduced a negative tone for the basic materials sector, which has historically been a key pillar of support for the index. While this policy may weigh on related stocks, it is simultaneously expected to boost state revenue.
To navigate this complex market environment, Phintraco Sekuritas has suggested several stocks for Monday’s trading, specifically KLBF, MAPA, MYOR, MARK, and ERAL.
Disclaimer: Investment decisions are entirely based on the reader’s personal judgment. This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any specific investment product.
Summary
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) faces significant downward pressure following a sharp decline last week. Analysts from MNC Sekuritas warn that the index could potentially drop to the 6,645–6,838 range, although a recovery toward 7,207–7,418 remains possible in an optimistic scenario. Phintraco Sekuritas projects continued volatility for the week, with the index expected to fluctuate between 6,850 and 7,100.
Market sentiment is being influenced by upcoming economic data, such as retail sales and consumer confidence, alongside the highly anticipated MSCI rebalancing announcement. Additionally, the government’s plan to implement progressive royalty rates on metal commodities is creating headwinds for the basic materials sector. Investors are advised to exercise caution and consider recommended stocks like AADI, MAPA, and KLBF as they navigate these complex market conditions.