Flooring Guide by Cinvex – JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) concluded the week of May 18-22, 2026, on a shaky note, having managed only a single day of gains at the very end of the session. Throughout the week, the market struggled under the weight of uncertainty surrounding the new “one-gate” export regulation, leading analysts to dismiss the rally on Friday, May 22, as a likely “fake rebound.”
MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana noted in his research that while the JCI rose 1.10% to close at 6,162 on Friday, the move lacked fundamental strength. He warned that the index faces significant downside risk when trading resumes on Monday, May 25, potentially testing the psychological support level of 5,000.
Although Friday’s gains were accompanied by an uptick in buying volume, the broader picture remains grim. Over the course of the week, the JCI plummeted 8.35%, consistently pressured by a mounting wave of sell-offs. Read also: Gauging the Bottom of the JCI Correction and Finding Opportunities in Discounted Stocks.
“The JCI is currently tracking within wave [v] of wave A of wave (2) on the black label. We anticipate that the next phase of this correction will likely test the 5,899 level, which serves as a critical support zone,” Herditya stated on Saturday, May 23, 2026. MNC Sekuritas projects that for early week trading, the index will oscillate between support levels of 5,996 and 5,899, with resistance levels set between 6,318 and 6,459. Read also: JCI Slumps 8.35% Weekly, SMMA, CPIN, and MYOR Emerge as Top Leaders.
Separately, the research team at Stockbit Sekuritas highlighted that market volatility remains elevated, driven primarily by the opaque implementation of the centralized export regulation via Danantara. Analysts pointed out that conflicting statements from state officials regarding the mechanism for centralizing strategic commodity exports suggest a lack of consensus on how the policy will actually be applied.
“This confusion has triggered high volatility in the commodity sector over the past few days. We expect this instability to persist until the government releases final, detailed implementation guidelines and the market observes the practical results of these rules,” the firm reported. Read also: Big-Cap Stocks Weighing on the JCI This Week: TPIA, DSSA, and BREN Tumble.
While analysts acknowledge that establishing an export management body is conceptually sound—aiming to curb complex issues like under-invoicing and illegal mining or plantation activities—the execution remains the primary concern. Critics argue that the government has yet to provide vital details, such as the logistics of commodity flow, transaction timelines, fund transfers between buyers and sellers, pricing determination, and the costs associated with the verification process.
Consequently, the commodity sector is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. According to Bisnis, most coal-related stocks have weakened consecutively since President Prabowo officially announced the one-gate export policy on May 20, 2026. The policy targets coal, CPO, and ferroalloys, with a transition period starting June 1, 2026, and full implementation slated for September 1, 2026. During this final phase, PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia will oversee all export processes, including contracts and transactions.
Despite rumors of a delay until January 1, 2027, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs has denied the claims, confirming that the original timeline remains in effect. Given this environment, investors are advised to monitor regulatory updates closely.
Notably, despite the 1.1% gain on Friday, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp309.52 billion. Year-to-date (YtD), the index has corrected by 28.74%, with total cumulative foreign net selling reaching Rp41.63 trillion.
______
Disclaimer: This news is not intended as a solicitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions remain the sole responsibility of the reader. Bisnis.com is not liable for any losses or gains arising from investment decisions made based on this content.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) experienced a volatile week ending May 22, 2026, closing with a 1.10% gain that analysts have dismissed as a likely “fake rebound.” Despite this brief uptick, the index suffered an 8.35% weekly decline, driven by intense selling pressure and significant foreign capital outflows. Market experts warn that the lack of fundamental strength suggests further downside risk, with the index potentially testing critical support levels in the near term.
This market instability is primarily fueled by widespread uncertainty regarding the government’s new “one-gate” export policy managed by Danantara. Stakeholders remain concerned over the opaque implementation guidelines, including logistics, pricing mechanisms, and transaction processes for key commodities like coal and CPO. Until the government provides detailed, final regulations, analysts expect continued volatility in the commodity sector and a cautious outlook for the broader market.