Flooring Guide by Cinvex — JAKARTA — BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has reiterated its buy recommendation for PT Timah Tbk. (TINS), setting a target price of Rp4,500 per share as the company marks a significant financial turnaround projected for 2026.
In a recent research report, analysts Andhika Audrey and Naura Reyhan Muchlis raised their 2026 net profit estimate for the state-owned tin producer by 13.4% to Rp3.4 trillion. This upward revision follows a stellar performance in the first quarter of 2026, which exceeded market expectations.
During the first three months of 2026, PT Timah recorded a net profit of Rp1.5 trillion, effectively achieving roughly 44.6% of the company’s full-year revised profit target. “The stronger-than-expected first-quarter results confirm our thesis regarding a definitive financial turnaround for the company in 2026,” the analysts stated on Monday (1/6/2026).
The company’s early-year growth was primarily driven by robust average selling prices (ASP) for refined tin, which reached US$49,200 per ton, alongside a sales volume of 6.0 kilotons (kt). Furthermore, TINS demonstrated significant margin expansion, with gross margins climbing to 38.6%, EBITDA margins reaching 37.2%, and net margins hitting 27.5%.
Despite adopting a more conservative stance on annual sales volume—lowering the estimate to 25 kt—BRI Danareksa increased its ASP projection for the company to US$50,000 per ton, up from the previous estimate of US$40,000. These adjustments account for potential risks related to new export regulations and the conclusion of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) relaxation period in late March 2026, which could impact production-to-sales conversion. Consequently, the net profit forecast for 2027 was adjusted downward by 8.7% to Rp3.5 trillion.
Looking ahead, potential revisions to royalty rates remain a primary concern for investors. Analysts warned that if these royalty hikes are implemented, they could limit the stock’s upside potential. “While we have not yet incorporated these proposed royalty changes into our base case, we view them as a key downside risk, as higher costs could materially erode cash margins and suppress TINS’s valuation in the short term,” the report noted.
Despite these risks, BRI Danareksa maintained its buy rating with a target price of Rp4,500, based on a 10.0x price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for 2026. Sensitivity analysis suggests that if the royalty increase takes effect, net profit could fall between Rp1.46 trillion and Rp2.50 trillion, potentially reducing the stock’s target price to a range of Rp2,000 to Rp3,400 per share.
Beyond the royalty issue, investors are advised to monitor other key risk factors, including the potential for global tin prices to underperform, logistical disruptions due to RKAB licensing challenges, and rising cash costs.
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Summary
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has maintained a buy recommendation for PT Timah Tbk (TINS) with a target price of Rp4,500, following a strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2026. The company reported a net profit of Rp1.5 trillion, driven by higher average selling prices for refined tin and significant margin expansion. Consequently, analysts have raised their 2026 net profit forecast to Rp3.4 trillion to reflect these positive operational results.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the brokerage noted potential risks including regulatory changes, such as possible increases in royalty rates and ongoing challenges regarding export licensing. Analysts warned that these factors could pressure profit margins and negatively impact the stock’s valuation if implemented. Investors are encouraged to closely monitor global tin price trends and future developments in the company’s operating costs.