The stock performance and future outlook of PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk. (ACES) are currently under the significant influence of news concerning PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPI), which is reportedly bringing the renowned Ace Hardware brand back to Indonesia. This development has sparked considerable discussion among investors and analysts, reshaping the competitive landscape of the Indonesian retail sector.
According to data from Bloomberg, ACES shares concluded Friday, August 22, 2025, with a decline of 4 points, or 0.87%, settling at Rp456. Over the past month, the stock has weakened by 3.38% from its position of Rp472, reflecting investor uncertainty in the wake of the recent news.
In stark contrast, MAPI shares demonstrated robust performance, closing up 20 points, or 1.5%, to Rp1,350 per share on the same Friday. This impressive gain pushed MAPI’s stock price up by a remarkable 21.62% within a single month, signaling strong market confidence in its latest strategic move.
As reported by Bisnis, a Stockbit Sekuritas report from mid-August 2025 revealed that during its first-half 2025 financial performance earnings call with analysts on Wednesday, August 13, 2025, MAPI’s management confirmed signing a cooperation agreement with Ace Hardware Corp. This agreement is set to reintroduce the prominent American retail brand to the Indonesian market.
However, the Stockbit Sekuritas report also tempered expectations, noting that “the opening of these Ace Hardware stores is most likely not going to happen this year and will be carried out in stages,” indicating a measured approach to market re-entry.
The news has not gone unnoticed by market observers, including Bahana Sekuritas analyst Laras Nadira. In her research, Nadira articulated that MAPI’s plan to reintroduce Ace Hardware to Indonesia could emerge as a significant competitor for ACES, potentially altering market dynamics in the medium term.
“We believe this plan will add pressure on ACES in the medium term, especially if the Ace Hardware stores brought in by MAPI offer products similar to those of ACES,” she elaborated in her research, cited Friday, August 22, 2025. This situation is further exacerbated by the analyst’s expectation that the new licensing agreement with MAPI likely lacks a non-competition clause, potentially placing ACES at a disadvantage, particularly if brand loyalty and awareness for Ace Hardware remain strong among consumers.
Despite these potential headwinds, ACES is poised to leverage its extensive product portfolio and a robust network of 252 stores strategically spread across Indonesia. This widespread presence is expected to serve as a significant competitive advantage for ACES while MAPI’s Ace Hardware is still in the nascent stages of its store expansion.
Looking ahead, Nadira anticipates that “in the long term, both companies could potentially engage in price wars, depending on product variety. Another risk is the proximity of store locations, which could impede the performance of both ACES and Ace Hardware.” This highlights the evolving competitive landscape that could shape the future of home improvement retail in Indonesia.
In a separate research note, Abyan H. Yuntoharjo, an analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, highlighted ACES’s aggressive store expansion as a key driver for sales growth in 2025. As of year-to-date 2025, ACES has already opened 8 new outlets, with an ambitious target of launching 17 more in the second half of the year.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas projects ACES’s sales to grow by 8.1% this year. The opening of 20 new stores in 2025 is estimated to contribute approximately 74% to this projected sales growth, underscoring the importance of physical expansion in the company’s strategy.
“Despite facing challenging macro conditions and market volatility, ACES shares remain attractive with an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 times and a target price of Rp700 per share,” Yuntoharjo stated, offering a more bullish perspective on the stock.
This positive outlook from Mirae Asset Sekuritas contrasts with the “hold” rating assigned to ACES shares by Bahana Sekuritas analyst Laras Nadira, who set a target price of Rp500 per share. The divergence in analyst recommendations underscores the complex factors influencing market sentiment.
According to Bloomberg data, a broader consensus of analysts reviewing ACES indicates a mixed sentiment: 20 analysts recommend “buy,” 9 recommend “hold,” and 1 analyst suggests “sell.” The average target price for ACES shares based on the Bloomberg analyst consensus stands at Rp608 over the next 12 months.
Most recently, UOB Kayhian analyst Willinoy Sitorus issued a “buy” recommendation for ACES with a target price of Rp565. Similarly, Mandiri Sekuritas analyst Gerry Harlan also advised “buy,” setting a target price of Rp695 for ACES shares. Adding to the neutral voices, RHB Research analyst Vanessa Karmajaya reiterated a “neutral” recommendation for ACES, with a target price of Rp570 per share.
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended to solicit the buying or selling of shares. Investment decisions are solely at the discretion of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPI) has confirmed an agreement to reintroduce the Ace Hardware brand to Indonesia, a development that saw MAPI’s shares surge while PT Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk. (ACES) stock declined. Analysts anticipate this move will intensify competition for ACES in the medium term, especially if product offerings overlap and a non-competition clause is absent, though MAPI’s Ace Hardware stores are not expected to open this year and will be introduced in stages.
Despite these competitive pressures, ACES plans aggressive expansion with 25 new outlets targeted for 2025, leveraging its extensive product portfolio and 252 existing stores as a competitive advantage. Analyst sentiment on ACES is mixed, ranging from “buy” recommendations due to its growth potential to “hold” ratings citing competitive risks, with a Bloomberg consensus average target price of Rp608.