A Glimmer of Hope for Cigarette Issuers HMSP, GGRM, WIIM from Finance Minister Purbaya
JAKARTA – Indonesian cigarette stocks, encompassing PT Gudang Garam Tbk. (GGRM), PT H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. (HMSP), PT Indonesia Tobacco Tbk. (ITIC), and PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. (WIIM), extended their impressive rally during Session I trading today, Wednesday (September 17, 2025). This sustained upward momentum follows yesterday’s remarkable performance on Tuesday (September 16, 2025), when all these tobacco sector shares recorded significant double-digit gains.
According to Stockbit data from Session I trading today, WIIM shares advanced by 0.49% to Rp1,035, while HMSP stock saw a gain of 1.49% to Rp680.
Concurrently, GGRM shares climbed 5.94% to Rp11,600, and ITIC stock surged impressively by 9.87% to Rp334.
These gains in Session I continue an already robust week for cigarette stocks. In the trading session last Tuesday, WIIM closed up 24.10%, HMSP strengthened by 20.72%, GGRM soared 17.74%, and ITIC posted a substantial 24.59% increase.
Yesterday’s strong performance in cigarette stocks mirrored a similar pattern observed during trading on Monday (September 8, 2025). On that occasion, the initial surge in tobacco share prices was driven by political sentiment surrounding a cabinet reshuffle, specifically the replacement of the Minister of Finance from Sri Mulyani to Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. However, following that initial spike, cigarette stock prices subsequently experienced a correction.
This past Tuesday, the market reacted once again, this time to statements from the newly appointed Finance Minister, Purbaya. His comments hinted at the possibility of a relaxation in the tobacco excise tax (CHT) policy, injecting fresh optimism into the sector.
Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, noted that technically, the current movement of cigarette stocks indicates a significant improvement. He opined that the dip in tobacco share prices after the sentiment from the Finance Minister reshuffle was merely a normal and healthy correction.
“Technically, the average movement of cigarette stock prices has started to move sideways, effectively leaving the downtrend phase behind,” Nafan stated on Wednesday (September 17, 2025).
Nafan further explained that cigarette stock prices are inherently highly sensitive to discussions regarding CHT policy issues, as elevated tobacco excise taxes typically exert considerable pressure on the fundamental performance of these issuers.
Pondering a hypothetical scenario, Nafan suggested that if the CHT were indeed to decrease next year, it would serve as a powerful positive catalyst for cigarette issuers. Such a policy shift would not only bolster their fundamental performance but also play a critical role in curbing the escalating circulation of illegal cigarettes. This illicit trade, he elaborated, has become increasingly rampant due to the widening price disparity between legal and illegal tobacco products, a direct consequence of the existing CHT structure.
“Therefore, for GGRM, HMSP, ITIC, and WIIM, this development is expected to improve their fundamental performance. At the very least, revenue performance should see an uplift, with the bottom line following suit,” Nafan concluded, emphasizing the potential for a significant turnaround in the sector’s financial health.
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Summary
Indonesian cigarette stocks, including PT Gudang Garam Tbk. (GGRM) and PT H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. (HMSP), have shown a significant and sustained rally, extending strong gains from Tuesday into Wednesday, September 17, 2025. This positive momentum was initially sparked by a cabinet reshuffle that appointed Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as the new Finance Minister. The market then reacted with renewed optimism to Minister Purbaya’s recent comments, which suggested a potential relaxation of the tobacco excise tax (CHT) policy.
Senior Market Analyst Nafan Aji Gusta indicated that cigarette stocks are technically improving, having moved beyond their downtrend phase. He highlighted the sector’s sensitivity to CHT policy discussions, noting that high taxes significantly impact fundamental performance. A potential CHT decrease next year would serve as a powerful positive catalyst, boosting the issuers’ financial performance and helping to curb the circulation of illegal cigarettes.