Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA – Stocks within Indonesia’s consumer cyclical index, or IDXCYCLIC, inherently possess a high sensitivity to prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Recently, the sector has demonstrated remarkable stock market performance, delivering substantial returns driven by the anticipation of increased public purchasing power.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), the IDXCYCLIC index experienced a low point, touching 635.60 in April, following a first quarter of 2025 marked by an economic slowdown of 4.87%. However, by the close of trading on Monday, September 16, 2025, the index dramatically reversed course, leading sectoral growth with a robust 2.39% surge to 857.30. This impressive performance surpassed the energy index’s 2.11% gain and stood in stark contrast to the health sector, which contracted by 0.26%.
Reza Priyambada, Director of Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia, posits that this significant market trend likely reflects the market’s positive reaction to the “8+4+5” economic stimulus package. This comprehensive package was officially announced by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, on Monday, September 15, 2025. Priyambada explained to Bisnis on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, “It could be that because this index includes several retail and media sector stocks, which are perceived to benefit from increased public purchasing power, market participants are inclined to transact in these shares.”
Despite the recent uptick, Priyambada cautioned that the sentiment surrounding this government policy remains short-term for the movement of cyclical stocks. Fundamentally, many issuers within the sector have yet to demonstrate truly satisfying performance. For instance, PT Matahari Department Store Tbk. (LPPF), a prominent retail issuer, recorded a 9.36% year-on-year (YoY) correction in sales and a 3.52% YoY decline in net profit during the first half of 2025. Despite these figures, LPPF shares saw a 17.08% year-to-date (YtD) growth to Rp1,645 as of Monday, September 15, 2025, closing up 1.86% on that Monday.
Similarly, PT Nusantara Sejahtera Raya Tbk. (CNMA), the operator of Cinema XXI movie theaters, also posted corrections in both revenue and net profit, by 2.63% and 25.85% respectively. On the stock exchange, CNMA experienced a 34.16% YtD correction to Rp133, yet surprisingly concluded trading on Monday with a 2.31% increase. Priyambada emphasizes that the economic stimulus provided by the government to boost purchasing power will not automatically translate into improved performance for all cyclical issuers. He believes the impact will depend more specifically on which sectors directly intersect with the government’s programs.
“It’s similar to the [free nutritious meals] program; we need to assess whether all consumer and feed issuers are affected, and clearly, not all are. The same applies to this new government policy,” he elaborated. Looking ahead at the investment prospects for cyclical stocks, Priyambada’s firm has identified several shares that exhibit attractive liquidity coupled with a low price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). These include PT Dharma Polimetal Tbk. (DRMA), PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk. (GJTL), PT Hartadinata Abadi Tbk. (HRTA), PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPI), and PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk. (ERAA).
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from readers’ investment decisions.
Summary
Indonesia’s consumer cyclical index (IDXCYCLIC) has recently demonstrated strong stock market performance, driven by anticipation of increased public purchasing power. The index dramatically surged 2.39% to 857.30 by September 16, 2025, leading sectoral growth after a low point in April. This rebound is largely attributed to the market’s positive reaction to a newly announced “8+4+5” economic stimulus package, with retail and media sectors perceived as primary beneficiaries.
Despite this surge, an analyst cautioned that the sentiment surrounding the government policy might be short-term, as many cyclical issuers have yet to show truly satisfying fundamental performance. The stimulus’s impact on purchasing power will specifically benefit sectors directly aligned with government programs, rather than all cyclical companies. For investment prospects, certain stocks like DRMA, GJTL, HRTA, MAPI, and ERAA are identified for their attractive liquidity and low price-to-earnings ratios.