JAKARTA – The financial world is buzzing as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) prepares to announce the results of its much-anticipated index rebalancing on February 10, 2026. This pivotal review will reshape MSCI’s constituent indices, with the changes set to officially take effect on March 1, 2026, promising significant shifts for investors tracking emerging markets.
Leading the way in market intelligence, Samuel Sekuritas has identified eleven strong stock candidates poised for potential inclusion in the MSCI indices. Their comprehensive analysis suggests that two of these promising stocks could join the prestigious MSCI Indonesia Global Standard index, while the remaining nine are strong contenders for the MSCI Indonesia Small Cap index.
At the forefront of the MSCI Indonesia Global Standard hopefuls are PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) and PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk. (PANI). According to research published on January 9, 2026, BUMI currently boasts a substantial market capitalization of approximately US$10.3 billion and a free float of 28.3%. The stock’s liquidity is equally robust, demonstrated by an impressive one-year average daily transaction value reaching US$36.7 million.
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Given this compelling profile, Samuel Sekuritas’ research, quoted on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, projects a significant influx of foreign funds into BUMI shares. Should BUMI officially secure its spot in the MSCI index, it could attract an estimated US$180 million to US$300 million in foreign capital.
Shifting focus to PANI, Samuel Sekuritas calculates its current market capitalization at approximately US$13.3 billion, with a free float of 15.9%. While PANI’s trading liquidity is comparatively lower than BUMI’s, the brokerage firm underscores that its substantial market capitalization and robust ownership structure solidify its position as a strong candidate. This makes PANI equally poised to draw a comparable foreign inflow, also estimated between US$180 million and US$300 million.
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Turning our attention to the MSCI Indonesia Small Cap category, Samuel Sekuritas has identified nine additional stocks as potential entrants. These include PT Darma Henwa Tbk. (DEWA), PT Indosat Tbk. (ISAT), PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk. (ADMR), PT Indokripto Koin Semesta Tbk. (COIN), PT Astrindo Nusantara Infrastruktur Tbk. (BIPI), PT Bukit Uluwatu Villa Tbk. (BUVA), PT Timah Tbk. (TINS), PT Buana Lintas Lautan Tbk. (BULL), and PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk. (SSIA).
These nine stocks have successfully landed on the brokerage’s radar, having met MSCI’s stringent criteria across key metrics such as market capitalization, free float, and trading liquidity. Their compliance with these standards positions them as credible candidates for inclusion.
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While the estimated foreign capital inflow for these Small Cap additions may be more modest compared to the Global Standard category, their inclusion is nonetheless significant. The research highlights that entry into the MSCI Small Cap index could substantially enhance their visibility among global investors, potentially opening doors to broader investment opportunities.
Conversely, the MSCI rebalancing process is not only about new inclusions; it also carries the potential to delist stocks previously featured in the indices. Samuel Sekuritas points to INDF as a significant issuer at risk of being removed from the MSCI Indonesia Global Standard category. Furthermore, several other stocks, including AALI, MIDI, ACES, and CLEO, face the possibility of exiting the MSCI Indonesia Small Cap index.
Investors are strongly advised to closely monitor the potential for foreign capital outflows from these at-risk stocks, particularly as the announcement and implementation periods for the index changes draw near. Such outflows could impact market dynamics.
Below is a comprehensive table detailing the stocks identified by Samuel Sekuritas as potential MSCI entrants for the March 2026 rebalancing period:
| No. | Ticker | Market Cap (US$ million) | Free Float (%) | Current FF adj. (US$ million) | ADVT 1Y (US$ million) | Foreign Inflow Potential (US$ million) | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUMI | 10,339 | 28.3 | 2,924 | 36.7 | 180-300 | MSCI Indonesia Global Standard |
| 2 | PANI | 13,345 | 15.9 | 2,124 | 10.5 | 180-300 | MSCI Indonesia Global Standard |
| 3 | DEWA | 1,990 | 56.9 | 1,132 | 14.0 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 4 | ISAT | 4,180 | 16.4 | 685 | 2.3 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 5 | ADMR | 4,428 | 15.0 | 663 | 3.6 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 6 | COIN | 3,512 | 15.0 | 527 | 15.8 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 7 | BIPI | 638 | 75.7 | 482 | 1.6 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 8 | BUVA | 2,341 | 19.7 | 462 | 4.5 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 9 | TINS | 1,493 | 30.1 | 449 | 6.1 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 10 | BULL | 474 | 65.8 | 312 | 3.8 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |
| 11 | SSIA | 517 | 58.5 | 302 | 4.6 | 18-30 | MSCI Indonesia Small Cap |