Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA — Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% is seen as creating lucrative opportunities for several stock sectors, even as the persistent shadow of foreign capital outflows continues to loom over the market.
BI Governor Perry Warjiyo announced that the central bank’s Board of Governors (RDG), during its meeting on April 21-22, 2026, resolved to keep the BI Rate unchanged at 4.75%.
“The Board of Governors Meeting of Bank Indonesia on April 21 and 22, 2026, decided to maintain the BI Rate at 4.75%,” Perry stated.
In line with this, the central bank also held the Deposit Facility interest rate at 3.75% and the Lending Facility rate at 5.5%.
Perry elaborated that this decision aligns with efforts to enhance the effectiveness of monetary operation interest rate structure adjustments. These measures are crucial for strengthening the stabilization of the rupiah exchange rate, mitigating the negative impacts of a deteriorating global economy exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
“BI stands ready to implement further reinforcements to sustain exchange rate stability and ensure inflation in 2026 and 2027 remains within the target range of 2.5% plus or minus 1%,” Perry affirmed.
Maximilianus Nico Demus, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, noted that the market is likely to accept the current interest rate. He highlighted that the prevailing conditions for both equity and bond markets remain largely unchanged.
“While Bank Indonesia currently possesses the flexibility to cut interest rates, we believe it will likely maintain the existing level due to persistent high market volatility and the continued weakening of the rupiah. This stance is also acceptable to market participants and investors,” Nico explained on Wednesday (22/4/2026).
He further elaborated that, given the unchanged interest rate environment, his firm assumes there will be no significant impact on either the stock or bond markets.
Nico also suggested that despite the rate hold, there remains potential for foreign capital inflows, although numerous factors beyond just the BI Rate must be considered. He pointed to geopolitical tensions, decisions by rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch regarding Indonesia’s outlook, fiscal policy management, and the MSCI index as critical influences on market movements.
“However, considering the current BI Rate and various other sentiments, we still foresee the potential for capital outflows,” Nico cautioned.
Meanwhile, Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, opined that BI’s decision to maintain interest rates would primarily lead to short-term selling pressure. He stressed that “the market currently prioritizes exchange rate stability over growth stimulus,” speaking on Wednesday (22/4/2026).
Wafi also observed that the majority of foreign investors are currently recording outflows. This pressure, he explained, is driven by a shift of assets towards US bonds due to high global yields and the ongoing depreciation of the rupiah. For investors, Wafi advised focusing on big-cap banking stocks and defensive sectors like consumer goods in light of BI’s decision. He specifically recommended avoiding the property and construction sectors for now.
David Sutyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Securities Analysts Association (PAEI), believes that setting the interest rate at its current level provides sufficient market reassurance. “This indicates that BI is committed to maintaining stability, particularly amidst global pressures and a relatively weak rupiah,” David stated on Wednesday (22/4/2026).
He clarified that the impact of this benchmark interest rate on the IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) is more geared towards stemming declines rather than aggressively driving significant gains. Consequently, the direction following this rate decision is likely to remain sideways, characterized by a defensive approach.
David also noted that foreign capital flows are currently fluctuating and are quite selective in the capital market, influenced by the BI rate decision. He observed no massive outflows, but also no aggressive inflows. “Typically, the market remains focused on large-cap stocks and sectors with strong fundamentals, so movements are still heavily influenced by global sentiment,” he added.
Regarding investor strategy, David sees the energy and commodities sectors as particularly attractive. These sectors are bolstered by sustained high global prices and serve as a crucial buffer against inflation and external volatility. Furthermore, he suggested that “high-dividend and defensive stocks also present appeal, as investors tend to seek stable yields in an environment of relatively high interest rates.”
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