Foreign Investor Exodus: Jakarta Composite Index Resists $52 Trillion Sell-Off

Flooring Guide by Cinvex – JAKARTA — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has defied market trends, soaring to a new all-time high (ATH). This impressive surge is accompanied by a significant spike in average daily transaction values, occurring remarkably as foreign investors have maintained a substantial net sell position since the beginning of the year.

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Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) reveals a dramatic surge in the market’s daily transaction value over the past week. Last Friday, September 19, 2025, transactions hit an impressive Rp69 trillion, largely driven by significant crossing activities. The momentum continued into the current week, with daily transactions reaching Rp22 trillion, then climbing further to Rp31 trillion on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. By Wednesday, September 24, 2025, the daily transaction value stood at Rp38 trillion. This figure dramatically contrasts with the BEI’s typical daily transaction range of Rp13 trillion to Rp14 trillion, highlighting an unprecedented level of market engagement.

Concurrently, the IHSG has posted a robust 14.76% year-to-date gain, reaching 8,125 points, positioning it as the second-best performing composite index across the Asia-Pacific region. Maximilianus Nico Demus, Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, sheds light on this intriguing dynamic. He points out that despite foreign investors registering a substantial net sell of Rp52.8 trillion since the start of the year, the IHSG has consistently charted new record highs. “This indicates a significant resurgence in activity from domestic institutions,” Nico explained on Wednesday, September 24, 2025. “It reflects that our market is becoming less reliant on foreign inflows, even though such inflows remain crucial for market movements.”

Nico further elaborated that the sustained strengthening of the IHSG, coupled with escalating daily transaction values, is making Indonesia’s capital market increasingly appealing to investors. This positive momentum is bolstered by several key factors: the introduction of a new Finance Minister and their proactive programs, alongside Bank Indonesia’s growth-oriented stance, demonstrated by its bold decision to cut interest rates. These domestic policy actions are creating a fertile ground for market expansion.

Optimism is also rising on the international front, with expectations that The Fed will soon implement interest rate cuts. Such a move would provide Bank Indonesia with greater flexibility, potentially allowing it to pursue further rate reductions towards the end of the year, thereby stimulating economic activity even more.

However, Nico also introduced a note of caution. He highlighted that with the IHSG already at elevated levels and many stocks having seen substantial movement, market participants and investors are increasingly adopting a “wait and see” approach, anticipating potential stock price adjustments. Furthermore, concerns about a market correction are growing. Nico suggested that a period of correction might be a necessary precursor for the index to achieve even greater upward momentum, implying a healthy pullback could pave the way for future gains.

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Summary

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has soared to an all-time high with a 14.76% year-to-date gain, making it the second-best performing index in the Asia-Pacific region. This surge occurred despite a substantial Rp52.8 trillion net sell by foreign investors since the beginning of the year. The market’s resilience is attributed to a significant resurgence in activity from domestic institutions, indicating reduced reliance on foreign inflows. Concurrently, daily transaction values on the Indonesia Stock Exchange have dramatically increased, far exceeding typical levels.

This positive momentum is driven by proactive domestic policies, including new programs from the Finance Minister and Bank Indonesia’s growth-oriented interest rate cuts, enhancing the capital market’s appeal. International expectations of Fed rate cuts could further empower Bank Indonesia to implement additional rate reductions. However, with the IHSG at elevated levels, market participants are increasingly adopting a “wait and see” approach, anticipating potential stock price adjustments and a possible market correction before achieving greater upward movement.

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