Flooring Guide by Cinvex JAKARTA – Shares of oil and gas issuer PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk. (ENRG) warrant close observation amidst a heating crude oil market, largely fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Americas.
According to Bloomberg data, Brent crude oil prices on Monday (January 5, 2026) rebounded by 0.21% to US$60.88 per barrel, recovering after an initial 1.2% correction. Concurrently, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil saw a 0.09% increase, settling at US$57.37 per barrel.
The recent surge in oil prices is a direct consequence of escalating geopolitical friction between the United States and Venezuela. Oil markets became immediately volatile following an announcement by US President Trump regarding the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, amounting to 303.22 billion barrels, which constitutes nearly a fifth of the global total.
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This recent upturn contrasts with the trend throughout 2025, when global oil prices experienced a cooling period. In September 2025, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) boosted oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd). This increase led to an abundant global supply, exerting downward pressure on commodity prices.
Consequently, these market conditions significantly impacted the average selling price (ASP) for upstream oil issuers like PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk. (ENRG).
Based on the company’s data up to the third quarter of 2025, ENRG’s crude oil segment sales decreased by 3.54% year-on-year (YoY) to US$112.14 million. This decline was primarily driven by a 14% YoY reduction in the average selling price, which fell to US$71.14 per barrel, even though the production volume paradoxically rose by 6% YoY to 8,381 bpd.
Crucially, ENRG’s oil sales segment contributed only 31.03% to its total revenue. The dominant segment, natural gas sales, accounted for 61.01% of revenue and demonstrated robust growth, expanding by 9.36% YoY to US$220.49 million. As a result, ENRG’s accumulated net sales for January-September 2025 collectively increased by 13.05% YoY, reaching US$361.38 million.
“Oil production growth was primarily propelled by output from the Siak and Kampar Blocks in Riau, while additional gas production from the Sengkang Block in South Sulawesi underpinned stable gas performance,” stated Syailendra S. Bakrie, ENRG’s President Director and Chief Executive Officer.
Despite the fluctuating commodity prices, ENRG recorded an impressive net profit growth of 8.54% YoY, rising from US$51.27 million to US$55.65 million.
Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, acknowledged that an increase in global oil prices would indeed have a positive impact on upstream oil and gas issuers, but he emphasized that this effect would likely be short-lived.
“Rising oil prices can directly boost average selling prices in Q1 2026. However, caution is advised: if the US successfully takes control and ramps up Venezuela’s oil production, global supply will increase, potentially causing prices to fall again,” Wafi told Bisnis on Monday (January 5, 2025).
Wafi further elaborated on the risks, noting that downstream oil issuers face significant margin pressure. If crude oil prices surge rapidly, these companies require substantially more capital to maintain inventory, yet there’s no guarantee that these increased costs can be immediately passed on to end consumers through higher selling prices.
“For upstream issuers, the risks primarily involve cost-push inflation. Operational costs and rig rental fees could also climb. There’s also the risk of extreme volatility,” he stressed.
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Wafi suggested that the appropriate strategy for the current market situation is short-term trading, advising against long-term holdings due to the prevailing macroeconomic trend of oil oversupply.
According to Bloomberg Terminal data, all 5 analysts (100%) covering ENRG recommend a ‘buy’ rating, with a consensus target price of Rp1,906. This reflects a potential return of 12.2% from the current price of Rp1,700. Among these, Senior Analyst Sukarno Alatas from Kiwoom Sekuritas has assigned a target price of Rp1,720 for ENRG.
In his research published on December 17, 2025, Sukarno highlighted ENRG’s allocation of US$200 million (approximately Rp3.3 trillion) in capital expenditure (capex). This forms part of a larger US$1.4 billion investment plan spanning 2025-2035, specifically earmarked for exploration, development, and maintenance initiatives aimed at ensuring production sustainability. ENRG itself is targeting a 10% YoY production growth in 2026, with an ambitious goal to double this to 100 mboepd by 2030.
A key consideration underpinning Kiwoom Sekuritas’ recommendation for ENRG is the company’s supportive production mix. The report noted that an increase in oil volume and improved natural gas prices effectively compensate for the impact of declining oil prices and reduced gas production volume, providing resilience to the company’s performance.
“Downside risks [to the rating] include the ongoing energy transition, regulatory uncertainty, fluctuations in commodity prices, intense competition, and rapid technological advancements,” Sukarno cautioned.
Energi Mega Persada Tbk. – TradingView
Disclaimer: This news report is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell shares. Investment decisions rest entirely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk. (ENRG) shares are under observation as crude oil prices rebound due to escalating US-Venezuela geopolitical tensions, despite a cooling period in 2025. This surge could boost upstream oil and gas issuers, though analysts suggest the positive impact may be short-lived if increased Venezuelan supply leads to lower prices. ENRG’s third-quarter 2025 results showed a 3.54% decline in crude oil sales due to lower average selling prices. However, strong natural gas sales drove a 13.05% increase in total net sales and an 8.54% rise in net profit.
Analysts largely recommend a ‘buy’ for ENRG, with a consensus target price of Rp1,906, supported by the company’s capital expenditure for exploration and development. ENRG aims for a 10% production growth in 2026 and an ambitious target of 100 mboepd by 2030. Kiwoom Sekuritas notes ENRG’s resilient production mix, where gas performance compensates for oil price impacts, despite risks like energy transition and commodity price volatility.