Flooring Guide by Cinvex – JAKARTA – Analysts are offering diverse recommendations for shares of state-owned banks in Indonesia, including PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI), PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. (BBTN), PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBNI), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI), and PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS).
This follows the government’s policy to release approximately IDR 200 trillion of funds held at Bank Indonesia (BI) into the banking system, sparking euphoria in the stock market.
Maximilianus Nicodemus, Director of the Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas Research and Investment Association, stated that this sentiment is positive in the short term as it provides additional liquidity to accelerate the economy and implement government priority programs.
Read More: IDR 200 Trillion Held Funds Released to Banking, Liquidity Projected to Rise
“In the short term, of course, it’s good. The market is happy when there is a pro-growth stimulus,” he told Bisnis on Sunday, September 14, 2025.
However, he cautioned about the risks associated with asset quality. According to him, accelerating credit disbursement without maintaining quality could depress bank performance. “If credit growth increases, but asset quality decreases, it will actually be a loss,” he said.
Read More: OJK Says IDR 200 Trillion Injection into State-Owned Banks Doesn’t Necessarily Spur Credit
Nico advises investors to be careful. Although major banks are strengthening, the sustainability of the sentiment needs to be observed. He mentioned that the performance of several state-owned banks is still in the recovery phase and not as strong as PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA), which continues to record solid profit growth. “As for state-owned bank shares, the problem is that their performance is also struggling, so wait and see,” he stated.
From Kiwoom Sekuritas, Oktavianus Audi also sees opportunities for accumulation in state-owned bank shares for the medium term. He recommends buying BBRI with a target price of 4,250 and BMRI at 5,600.
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Audi explained that if these funds are channeled through banks, disbursement can expand the credit distribution base. The multiplier effect is expected to contribute an additional 3.2%—4.3% liquidity to the money supply (M2). In addition to the direct impact on liquidity, this step is said to signal inflation expectations.
“The signal of expectations and inflation, the seemingly coordinated fiscal and monetary actions, have the potential to change inflation expectations, especially if used for mass consumption,” Audi told Bisnis.
The market also views this policy as potentially reducing the cost of funds for banks. Increased liquidity allows banks to more freely channel productive credit, which in turn can accelerate the realization of government projects and support economic growth.
However, the effectiveness of the policy will greatly depend on the speed and direction of fund disbursement, as well as the response of banks as recipients. “If the distribution is right on target and BI manages the sterilization well, this scenario is positive for the market,” Audi said.
Audi stated that the banking, construction, and consumer goods sectors are potentially the main beneficiaries. Meanwhile, the property, cement, and retail sectors are seen as potentially boosted secondarily.
Meanwhile, Senior Investment Information at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, said that the Minister of Finance’s statement regarding the withdrawal of IDR 200 trillion triggered the increase in state-owned bank share prices in trading today. “This is attractive for retail investors to consider entering state-owned bank shares,” he said.
Mirae Asset provides a recommendation to buy in stages or accumulative buy for BBNI with a target price of 4,470 to 5,000, then BBRI 4,220 to 4,730, BMRI 5,075 to 7,175, and suggests re-accumulating add for BBTN with a target of 1,350 to 1,610.
Disclaimer: This news is not intended to encourage buying or selling shares. Investment decisions are entirely in the hands of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or profits arising from readers’ investment decisions.
Summary
The Indonesian government’s release of IDR 200 trillion from Bank Indonesia into the banking system has prompted varied analyst recommendations for state-owned bank shares, including BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, and BBTN. While analysts note a short-term positive sentiment from increased liquidity and economic stimulus, caution is advised regarding potential asset quality risks if credit expansion is not managed well. Some experts suggest observing the sustainability of this sentiment, as state-owned banks are still in a recovery phase.
Despite these caveats, some analysts see medium-term accumulation opportunities, anticipating the funds could expand credit distribution, boost money supply liquidity, and potentially lower banks’ cost of funds. Banking, construction, and consumer goods sectors are identified as primary beneficiaries. Several firms issued “buy” or “accumulative buy” recommendations for specific state-owned bank shares, noting the policy has already triggered an increase in their stock prices.