JAKARTA — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) soared to an all-time high this week, reaching an unprecedented 8,126.55. This impressive rally has investors now keenly anticipating whether this momentum can be sustained into the coming week.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the past week of trading, spanning September 22-26, 2025, largely concluded in positive territory. The IHSG demonstrated robust growth, climbing 0.60% to close at 8,099.33 on Friday, September 26, 2025, up from 8,051.11 the previous week. Notably, the index previously shattered its all-time high (ATH) record on Wednesday, September 24, 2025, by closing at 8,126.55. This stellar performance was mirrored in the IDX’s market capitalization, which saw a 1.74% increase, expanding to Rp14,888 trillion from Rp14,632 trillion just one week prior.
The Indonesian stock market also experienced significant foreign investor interest, recording a net buy of Rp5.09 trillion this past week. This marks a continued trend of foreign capital inflow, following Rp3.03 trillion in net foreign buying the preceding week, underscoring growing international confidence in the domestic market.
David Kurniawan, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas, attributed the IHSG’s strengthening to several key factors. A recent trade agreement between Indonesia and the European Union, which promises a substantial 80% tariff cut for Indonesian export products starting in 2027, has provided a significant positive catalyst, especially for exporter stocks, boosting long-term trade prospects. Furthermore, the stability of the rupiah, meticulously managed by Bank Indonesia (BI), has bolstered foreign investor confidence, encouraging continued accumulation in the domestic market. “If this positive sentiment remains consistent, the IHSG could very well maintain a short-term bullish trend,” Kurniawan stated in a written release on Sunday, September 28, 2025.
Optimism surrounding potential easing by The Fed has also contributed to the positive sentiment. Global markets are increasingly hopeful that the US central bank will resume interest rate cuts, a move expected to stimulate capital flows into emerging markets, including Indonesia, further fueling local market growth.
Looking ahead to next week’s trading, from September 29 to October 3, 2025, David Kurniawan highlights two crucial sentiments for investors to monitor. First is fiscal policy and leadership, with market participants keenly observing the actions of the new Finance Minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. Investors are eager to see if Purbaya will uphold fiscal discipline, particularly concerning the budget deficit, and will also watch for any signals regarding potential government stimulus or spending initiatives.
Second, the sentiment surrounding the cigarette excise tax is a key factor. Purbaya has affirmed that the tobacco product excise tariff (CHT) will not be raised for 2026. This decision aligns with the wishes of both the cigarette industry and farmers, who have advocated for a moratorium on excise tax increases for the next few years.
The Phintraco Sekuritas Research Team also weighed in on the outlook for the upcoming week, suggesting that the IHSG will be influenced by a mix of domestic and external factors. Domestically, investors will closely track Indonesia’s manufacturing index, trade balance data, and inflation figures. Externally, from the United States, attention will turn to manufacturing and services sector data, alongside critical labor market indicators such as ADP Employment, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment rates. These will be vital for assessing the health of the US economy and predicting the likelihood of further Fed interest rate reductions.
From a technical perspective, the Stochastic RSI indicator is moving towards a pivot point after experiencing a death cross, while the MACD histogram, though still in positive territory, has begun to show signs of weakening. Despite these mixed signals, the IHSG has successfully maintained its position above the MA5 level. “The IHSG is projected to trade within the range of 7,980-8,170,” concluded the Phintraco Sekuritas Research Team, providing a concise forecast for the week ahead.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) soared to an all-time high of 8,126.55 this past week, closing up 0.60% at 8,099.33. This impressive rally saw market capitalization expand to Rp14,888 trillion, accompanied by significant foreign investor interest, recording a net buy of Rp5.09 trillion.
Analysts attribute the IHSG’s strength to a new trade agreement with the European Union and the rupiah’s stability, alongside optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. For the upcoming week, investors will monitor the new Finance Minister’s fiscal policy, the decision to maintain the cigarette excise tax for 2026, and key economic data from Indonesia and the US, with the IHSG projected to trade between 7,980 and 8,170.