Flooring Guide by Cinvex – The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to continue its upward trend at the start of next week. Market optimism remains supported by the potential for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates and positive sentiment from the Indonesia-European Union trade agreement.
Over the past week, from Monday to Friday, September 22–26, 2025, the IHSG closed at 8,099, up 0.60 percent compared to the previous week. On Thursday, September 24, the IHSG even touched a new record high of 8,168.
“The strengthening of the IHSG this week was also supported by the RI–EU trade agreement, which provided a positive catalyst for exporter stocks,” said David Kurniawan, Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), in a statement on Sunday (9/28).
Furthermore, the stability of the Rupiah, maintained by Bank Indonesia, is adding to the confidence of foreign investors to continue accumulating in the domestic market. If this sentiment is consistent, the IHSG could move in a short-term bullish trend.
However, foreign investors still recorded net sales or outflows of IDR 1 trillion in the regular market. Global sentiments also influenced this, including market optimism regarding the Fed’s policies.
Moreover, according to David, the RI–EU trade agreement, with export tariff cuts starting in 2027, and the rally in spot gold prices, which reached a record USD 3,759 per troy ounce, also contributed. “From the domestic side, negative sentiment came from the force majeure at Freeport’s Grasberg mine due to the mudflow disaster,” he explained.
Looking ahead to trading which begins tomorrow, Monday to Friday, September 29 – October 3, 2025, IPOT notes two main sentiments that investors should monitor. First, the fiscal policies of the new Minister of Finance regarding the budget deficit and government stimulus.
Second, certainty regarding the 2026 cigarette excise moratorium as affirmed by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. “Investors should gradually accumulate fundamentally strong stocks in the banking, consumer, and export commodity sectors, while traders should take advantage of the potential short-term bullish trend by collecting uptrend stocks,” David advised.
In response to these market dynamics, IPOT recommends three stocks that investors can consider for trading next week:
1. Buy on Breakout HMSP (Current Price: 875, Entry: 900, Target Price: 1,000, Stop Loss: 856, Risk to Reward 1:2.3). The cigarette sector is starting to become attractive again, following sentiment related to excise duties. The value in PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP)’s price currently provides a fairly attractive dividend yield cushion. In the short term, the price is starting to move uptrend and there is potential for a breakout.
2. Buy ANTM (Current Price: 3,210, Entry: 3,210, Target Price: 3,470, Stop Loss: 3,090, Risk to Reward 1:2.2). The gold sector remains a favorite, supported by the all-time high increase in its commodity price. Although there is selling pressure on PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), it is currently right in its demand area.
3. Buy on Pullback BTPS (Current Price: 1,390, Entry: 1,350–1,370, Target Price: 1,490, Stop Loss: 1,300, Risk to Reward 1:2.8). PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk (BTPS) is supported by fundamentals with 8M 2025 growth, and technically it is currently sideways in the demand area within its upward trend.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to continue its upward trend, supported by the potential for the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates and positive sentiment from the Indonesia-European Union trade agreement. Over the past week, the IHSG closed at 8,099, up 0.60 percent, even reaching a new record high. Factors such as the RI–EU trade agreement and the stability of the Rupiah are contributing to investor confidence.
IPOT recommends monitoring the new Minister of Finance’s fiscal policies and certainty regarding the 2026 cigarette excise moratorium. They suggest accumulating fundamentally strong stocks in banking, consumer, and export commodity sectors. IPOT recommends “Buy on Breakout” for HMSP, “Buy” for ANTM, and “Buy on Pullback” for BTPS, providing entry points, target prices, and stop-loss levels for each stock.