JAKARTA — The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to enter a bullish phase starting next week, or by early April 2026. This optimistic outlook is fueled by a combination of crucial market sentiments, including significant portfolio rebalancing activities and compelling dividend dynamics.
Nafan Aji Gusta, a Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, highlighted the historical trend supporting this forecast. He explained that the IHSG typically exhibits bullish movements in April. Furthermore, Nafan noted that the index often experiences a lower base effect throughout March, creating a springboard for subsequent growth.
“Given the lower base effect in March, we certainly anticipate an improvement in the IHSG’s performance in April, as investors begin to execute their portfolio rebalancing strategies following the long holiday period,” Nafan stated on Sunday (29/3/2026).
Adding to the positive momentum, corporate earnings reports and dividend payouts are expected to significantly influence the IHSG. Nafan emphasized that dividend distributions act as a substantial “sweetener” for investors, enhancing market appeal.
He further elaborated that the competitive dividend yields offered by companies, particularly within the banking sector, are robust enough to counteract potential selling pressure on the index. This makes these shares particularly attractive to investors seeking stable returns.
Beyond these domestic catalysts, an upcoming MSCI review is another sentiment eagerly awaited by investors. According to Nafan, this review is poised to serve as a positive catalyst, potentially stimulating increased foreign flow into the Indonesian capital market.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, investors are closely monitoring the release of March inflation data, expected in early April. Should inflation remain within a controlled range, it is anticipated to restore investor confidence in domestic purchasing power, thereby boosting overall market sentiment.
Looking ahead, investors will also continue to monitor the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East throughout April, which could introduce an element of uncertainty to global markets.
Nafan also pointed to ongoing concerns regarding a “higher for longer” interest rate policy adopted by global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve (The Fed). This strategy aims to mitigate fears of stagflation, a scenario characterized by high inflation coupled with stagnant economic growth.
Additionally, investors will be keenly awaiting the release of key U.S. employment data. Collectively, these various catalysts—ranging from domestic rebalancing and dividends to international economic data and geopolitical events—are expected to shape the intricate dynamics of the capital market in April.