The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) faces a potential correction as it heads into the start of the week, following a 1.98% decline to the 6,723 level observed on Wednesday (May 13). Despite this bearish outlook, analysts have identified several promising opportunities, with particular interest in PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA), PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), and PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO).
According to MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana, the current movement of the IHSG suggests the index is navigating the [v] wave of the A wave within the (2) wave structure. This analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, a common technical methodology used to forecast market trends by identifying cyclical highs and lows.
In a worst-case scenario, the index could slide to a range between 6,644 and 6,711. Conversely, the immediate upside potential is estimated between 6,758 and 6,777. Herditya cautioned investors to remain vigilant of a potential gap area situated between 6,538 and 6,585.
MNC Sekuritas has established support levels for the IHSG at 6,682 and 6,585, while resistance levels are marked at 6,917 and 7,069. In technical analysis, support serves as a price floor where buying interest typically strengthens, preventing further decline. In contrast, resistance acts as a price ceiling where selling pressure often intensifies, stalling upward momentum.
For traders, MNC Sekuritas recommends a buy on weakness strategy for specific stocks. For PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), the suggested accumulation range is Rp 2,710 – 2,920, with price targets at Rp 3,160 – 3,440 and a stop-loss set below Rp 2,640. Similarly, PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) is recommended for accumulation at Rp 476 – 482, with targets of Rp 540 – 595 and a stop-loss below Rp 458.
Meanwhile, Phintraco Sekuritas offers a broader perspective, recommending PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN), PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO), PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA), PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk (BTPS), PT Super Bank Indonesia Tbk (SUPA), and PT Buana Lintas Lautan Tbk (BULL).
Phintraco Sekuritas attributes the IHSG’s performance to a blend of domestic and international factors. Externally, the market is overshadowed by profit-taking actions on Wall Street. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to inject uncertainty into global markets, causing crude oil prices to surge by over 3% following the lack of a diplomatic breakthrough on May 15.
Global investors are now shifting their focus toward Nvidia’s upcoming financial report and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Market participants are eager for clarity regarding future interest rate policies, especially after recent U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations. In China, investors remain watchful for key economic indicators, including industrial production and retail sales, while the central bank is expected to maintain its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively.
On the domestic front, investor attention is firmly fixed on the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hold the BI Rate at 4.75% on May 20. Additionally, market participants are anticipating fresh data on credit growth, first-quarter current account balances, and the money supply (M2).
Adding to the cautious sentiment, FTSE Russell has announced a delay in its full index rebalancing for the Indonesian capital market—impacting factors like free-float adjustments and IPO-related additions—until the September 2026 review. Phintraco Sekuritas warns that if the IHSG breaks below the 6,700 mark, the index risks testing the 6,500 – 6,550 range later this week.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) faces a potential correction after a 1.98% decline to 6,723, with analysts forecasting its movement using Elliott Wave Theory. MNC Sekuritas established support levels at 6,682 and 6,585, while resistance is at 6,917 and 7,069, warning of a potential slide to 6,644-6,711. If the IHSG breaks below the 6,700 mark, it risks testing the 6,500-6,550 range.
Despite the cautious outlook, analysts recommend specific stocks, including DEWA, INDY, JPFA, and PGEO, with MNC Sekuritas suggesting a “buy on weakness” strategy for Indika Energy (INDY) and Darma Henwa (DEWA). The IHSG is influenced by external factors like Wall Street profit-taking, geopolitical tensions, and anticipated FOMC minutes regarding interest rates, alongside domestic attention on the Bank Indonesia meeting where the BI Rate is expected to remain at 4.75%.