Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) Sees Rebound Potential Driven by Dividend Season and Attractive Valuations, Despite Lingering Headwinds
JAKARTA — The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (IHSG) is poised to challenge the 7,150–7,200 range during the week of April 6–10, 2026. However, persistent selling pressure continues to cast a shadow, primarily influenced by dominant global sentiments and ongoing foreign capital outflows.
Analysts at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas — Reza Diofanda, Chory Agung, and Abida Massi Armand — noted that the IHSG closed the week of March 30–April 2, 2026, down 1.59% at the 7,026 level. This decline was accompanied by significant net foreign selling, reaching a substantial Rp4.77 trillion.
This downward pressure stemmed from escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, which prompted market participants to adopt a risk-off stance. Domestically, concerns over stocks with highly concentrated ownership have also garnered considerable investor attention recently, adding to the market’s unease.
From a technical perspective, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas identifies a clear opportunity for an IHSG rebound, provided the index successfully holds above its critical support level of 6,950.
“The IHSG has the potential for a rebound as long as it maintains above the 6,950 support area. Current conditions indicate consolidation and a weakening of bearish momentum, thus opening up prospects for an ascent towards the 7,150–7,200 range,” the research team elaborated, highlighting a potential upward trajectory.
Nonetheless, the risk of further declines remains a crucial consideration. The IHSG is still perceived to be trading within a descending triangle pattern, a technical formation that typically signifies dominant selling pressure.
“Currently, the IHSG exhibits potential for a bearish continuation, reinforced by the descending triangle pattern. Dominant selling pressure is clearly evident from successive lower highs and a weakening MACD indicator,” an analyst explained, underscoring the prevailing negative sentiment.
A negative scenario could materialize if the IHSG were to fall back below the 6,950 level, potentially paving the way for a deeper decline in the market.
Beyond technical factors, external pressures are also playing a significant role. The strengthening US dollar, amidst escalating global conflicts, is putting considerable strain on the Rupiah. This scenario could push the IHSG below the 7,000 mark if accompanied by aggressive foreign selling.
“According to analysts, the Rupiah’s depreciation could persist, potentially reaching Rp17,500 by 2026 if global conflicts do not abate. This condition would inevitably impact the equity market, with the IHSG potentially trading below 7,000 under the weight of massive net foreign selling pressure,” the analyst elaborated.
Domestically, the market’s attention will be keenly focused on the implementation of eight national austerity policies by the government, designed to counter global pressures. These measures are projected to generate substantial savings, with Rp6.2 trillion expected from work-from-home arrangements for civil servants (WFH ASN) and a further Rp130 trillion from overall budget efficiencies.
Concurrently, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) has completed four key agendas aimed at enhancing capital market transparency, a move broadly seen as fostering positive long-term market sentiment. However, in the short term, sentiment remains decidedly mixed, primarily due to the market’s continued focus on the Iran conflict.
These four pivotal capital market transparency initiatives, undertaken by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and Self-Regulatory Organizations (SROs), include: providing share ownership data exceeding 1%, implementing the announcement of High Shareholding Concentration (HSC), enhancing the granularity of investor classification in KSEI share ownership data to a total of 39 classifications and investor types, and increasing the minimum free float threshold to 15%.
“In the long term, these measures represent a positive transformation, elevating the standards, transparency, and overall investability of the Indonesian market. This advancement is expected to open avenues for increased foreign capital inflows, aligning with deadlines set by global indices for May 2026,” an analyst remarked.
Conversely, the market is also grappling with concerns regarding stocks characterized by high ownership concentration or limited free float. Such stocks face the inherent risk of being adversely impacted if they fail to meet MSCI criteria, adding another layer of complexity for investors.
In its announcement on Thursday (April 2, 2026), the BEI identified at least nine stocks deemed to have dominant ownership concentration, based on the exchange’s methodology. Prominent names on this list include BREN, DSSA, AGII, and RLCO, the latter having only recently listed on the exchange late last year.
“Consequently, the IHSG is projected to move in a consolidative pattern with a limited bias, as market participants await further developments,” the analyst concluded.
Amidst this volatile backdrop, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas offers specific stock recommendations: PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk. (JPFA) with a target price of Rp2,500—Rp2,600, PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk. (TAPG) targeting Rp1,910—Rp1,985, and PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. (MBMA) with a target price range of Rp755—Rp805 per share.