The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to open stronger on Wednesday, March 25, with an anticipated range of 7,150-7,200 following the extended Lebaran holiday break. This optimistic outlook comes after the index closed robustly on Tuesday, March 17, surging 84.55 points, or 1.20 percent, to reach 7,106.839.
According to Hendra Wardana, a prominent capital market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, the movement of the Indonesian stock market post-Lebaran and Nyepi holidays will predominantly be shaped by a blend of global sentiment and seasonal domestic factors. Wardana highlights that positive global developments during Indonesia’s long break, particularly the strengthening of US and Asian stock markets amid easing geopolitical tensions and stabilizing energy prices, serve as an encouraging initial sentiment for local investors.
Historically, the IHSG often experiences a technical rebound after the Lebaran holiday. Wardana explains, “Before the long holiday, investors typically engage in profit-taking and adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. Consequently, after the holiday concludes, there’s a renewed inflow of funds into the market.” This pattern suggests potential upward momentum for the index as trading resumes.
Given these conditions, Hendra anticipates that the IHSG has the potential for an early morning surge at the opening. However, he cautions that this strengthening might be limited, likely keeping the index within a consolidation phase. Investors should watch for the index to test the resistance area between 7,150 and 7,200.
On the flip side, Hendra advises market participants to remain vigilant regarding potential external risks. A resurgence of geopolitical tensions, a sharp spike in energy prices, or a tighter-than-expected interest rate policy from the US Federal Reserve could pressure the IHSG, potentially pushing it to test the psychological support level of 7,000. The market’s performance this week is also expected to react significantly to various global developments that unfolded during the extended holiday, including price movements in key commodities such as gold and energy.
For Wednesday, March 25, Hendra Wardana recommends several stocks, including SRTG, SUPA, EMTK, and SCMA, for investor consideration.
Echoing a similar sentiment, Mirae Asset Sekuritas projects that the IHSG could experience a gap adjustment early in the week on March 25. This adjustment, driven by the accumulation of global sentiment during the holiday period, might see the index reaching levels between 7,257 and 7,482.
“A portion of market participants are still on holiday or have not fully returned to the market, which is likely to result in relatively moderate trading volumes and transactions on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI),” explained Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas. He further notes that investors are expected to adopt a prudent stance, closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the Middle East, while also awaiting post-holiday policy directions from the government and Bank Indonesia, alongside the latest US economic data releases.
Despite potential caution, Nafan suggests that two factors could act as significant buffers against any substantial decline for the IHSG: the phenomenon of window dressing towards the end of March and proactive bargain hunting in various big-cap stocks. Mirae Asset Sekuritas’ recommended stocks for Wednesday, March 25, include ANTM, INKP, and MBMA.
Disclaimer: Investment decisions are entirely based on the reader’s judgment and discretion. This news article does not constitute a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any specific investment product.