Flooring Guide by Cinvex – , JAKARTA – The Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) soared to a new all-time high (ATH) of 8,394 during trading on Friday, November 7, 2025. This impressive surge was fueled by a series of positive macroeconomic data, instilling confidence in the equity market.
According to Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Equity Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, the current bullish momentum of the IHSG is underpinned by robust macroeconomic fundamentals. These include well-controlled inflation, an expanding trend in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a better-than-expected Q3 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a remarkable 50 consecutive months of trade surplus, and sustained growth in export-import figures.
Liza further highlighted additional catalysts invigorating the market, such as a prevailing trend of declining interest rates, the implementation of Q4 2025 fiscal stimulus, the extension of the VAT DTP policy until 2027, and the anticipated potential inflow of funds from MSCI inclusion. She shared these insights with Bisnis, as quoted on Sunday, November 9, 2025.
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Looking ahead, Liza anticipates that the IHSG’s momentum for the remainder of 2025 will be further bolstered by government and Danantara liquidity. This support significantly strengthens the argument for a continued and reasonable stock market rally.
Notably, the banking liquidity support policy initiated by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is now taking tangible form. The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) has reported that state-owned Himbara banks had disbursed Rp167.6 trillion in government liquidity injection funds by October 22, 2025. This amount represents 84% of the government’s total placement funds, underscoring the substantial financial backing provided to the banking sector.
This disbursement marks a significant increase of approximately 48% compared to the Rp113 trillion (56% of total government placement funds) distributed as of October 9, 2025, demonstrating an accelerated commitment to bolstering market liquidity.
Given these favorable conditions, Liza believes the IHSG has a strong likelihood of continuing its upward trajectory until the end of the year, aligning with the government’s optimistic outlook. “The bullish pattern target of 8,600 could well be achieved before the year-end,” she asserted.
From a technical standpoint, Liza elaborated that during a strong bullish phase like the current one, price movement serves as the primary indicator. Other technical tools, such as MACD or RSI, merely function as confirmations rather than determinants of market direction.
In parallel, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, explained that the IHSG’s current technical level has already surpassed the projected Wave V target of 8,390, a forecast previously set by Mirae Asset.
Nafan indicated that using a technical approach, where the MACD has formed a golden cross and the stochastic RSI is moving upwards towards the overbought area, suggests an increased potential for profit-taking in the stock market. Such actions could, in turn, temper the IHSG’s advance. However, he added a crucial nuance: “Ultimately, this depends on the performance of the stochastic RSI itself. If there’s still a rally at the 70 level, it could continue to rise to 80 or even 90, which would mean prices remain bullish.”
Mirae Asset’s historical review over the past 25 years reveals a consistent trend of the IHSG typically moving positively during November and December. This year, the equity market benefits from additional positive sentiment derived from strong national economic fundamentals.
He concluded, “This should be reflected in Indonesia’s GDP performance, which remains above consensus expectations at 5.04%. This figure is also higher than the full-year 2024 projection,” reinforcing the positive economic backdrop for investors.
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Summary
The Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) reached a new all-time high of 8,394 on November 7, 2025, propelled by robust macroeconomic data. Key drivers include well-controlled inflation, an expanding manufacturing PMI, better-than-expected Q3 2025 GDP, and a consistent trade surplus. Additional market catalysts involve declining interest rates, Q4 2025 fiscal stimulus, and the potential for MSCI inclusion, collectively boosting investor confidence.
Analysts anticipate the IHSG’s bullish momentum will persist through year-end, supported by government liquidity and significant disbursements to the banking sector. While some technical indicators suggest potential for profit-taking, historical trends show positive movements in November and December. Strong national economic fundamentals, including a GDP performance above expectations, reinforce the outlook for a continued rally, with a target of 8,600 achievable before year-end.