JAKARTA – The Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is projected to surge in the final quarter of this year, primarily driven by proactive government policies. This optimistic forecast has led to recommendations for several stocks to maximize year-end investment returns.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), the IHSG recorded a notable gain of 0.91% to close at 8,124.75 during trading on Thursday, October 16, 2025. The index has maintained a strong performance, rising 14.76% year-to-date (YTD) since the first trading day of 2025.
Rully Arya Wisnubroto, Head of Research & Chief Economist at Mirae Asset, believes that despite the potential for increased market volatility towards the year’s end, the outlook for the Indonesian stock market remains positive. This robust sentiment is underpinned by a more pro-growth fiscal policy direction and solid macroeconomic fundamentals.
The appointment of Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as the new Indonesian Minister of Finance is seen as a pivotal shift, redirecting policy focus towards more aggressive economic growth while steadfastly maintaining fiscal discipline. “Investors need to remain adaptive to global and domestic dynamics. Generally, the market prospects are still attractive,” Rully stated during Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia’s Media Day on Thursday, October 16, 2025.
Among Purbaya’s policies, the injection of IDR 200 trillion in liquidity into state-owned banks is expected to significantly boost economic growth. Additionally, the Indonesian government has rolled out a comprehensive economic stimulus package to further invigorate the market.
Beyond fiscal policy, the fourth quarter of 2025 holds the potential for improved market sentiment, supported by anticipated interest rate reductions and enhanced exchange rate stability. These factors collectively create a conducive environment for sustained market growth.
In light of these conditions, the Mirae Asset Research Team recommends a “buy on weakness” strategy, particularly for specific stocks. These include PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk. (TLKM), PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. (TOWR), PT Mitratel Tbk. (MTEL), PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk. (JPFA), PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF), and PT Barito Pacific Tbk. (BRPT).
Rully also projected that the IHSG has further upside potential, possibly even breaking through the 9,000 level. This momentum is expected to be fueled by the strong performance of “multibagger” conglomerate stocks, complemented by global stock index rebalancing, such as that by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).
“If conglomerate group stocks continue to rise, coupled with the MSCI effect, the IHSG could climb higher to 8,800, or even 9,000, albeit still on a fundamental basis,” Rully elaborated. He noted that the current movement of the IHSG is largely supported by the exceptional performance of these multibagger conglomerate stocks.
However, Rully also highlighted a cautionary aspect: “The valuations of leading stocks, especially those from conglomerates like Prajogo Pangestu, Sinarmas, and Salim, are already expensive, with price-to-earning (PE) ratios in the hundreds. Meanwhile, their fundamentals remain stagnant.” He suggested that if these conglomerate-backed stocks do not experience further surges, the IHSG might struggle to surpass the 8,000 level, particularly as previously supportive market pillars like the banking sector have shown sluggish performance.
Indeed, a series of stocks affiliated with Indonesia’s conglomerate groups have recorded astonishing price surges. For instance, PT DCI Indonesia Tbk. (DCII), owned by Toto Sugiri and Anthoni Salim, has rocketed by 550.59% YTD. Similarly, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk. (DSSA), part of the Sinar Mas Group, saw its stock price jump 210.81% YTD. PT Multipolar Technology Tbk. (MLPT), under the Lippo Group owned by the Riady family, climbed an impressive 694.59% YTD.
Furthermore, BRPT and PT Chandra Daya Investasi Tbk. (CDIA), both backed by tycoon Prajogo Pangestu, recorded phenomenal stock price increases of 327.17% YTD and 926.32% YTD, respectively.
Disclaimer: This news report is not an invitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions are solely at the reader’s discretion. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
The Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) is projected to surge in Q4 2025, primarily driven by proactive government policies and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. The appointment of Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa as Finance Minister signals a shift towards pro-growth fiscal policies, including a IDR 200 trillion liquidity injection into state banks and a comprehensive economic stimulus package. Anticipated interest rate reductions and improved exchange rate stability are also expected to boost market sentiment. In light of these conditions, Mirae Asset recommends a “buy on weakness” strategy for stocks such as PT Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) and PT Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR).
The IHSG has further upside potential, possibly reaching 8,800 or even 9,000, fueled by the strong performance of “multibagger” conglomerate stocks and global index rebalancing. However, analysts caution that valuations for many leading conglomerate stocks are already expensive, while their fundamentals remain stagnant. If these specific conglomerate-backed stocks do not experience further significant surges, the IHSG might struggle to surpass the 8,000 level, particularly as the banking sector has shown sluggish performance.