Despite a challenging year for Indonesia’s retail sector, key players such as PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk. (ACES), operating Ace Hardware, and PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk. (AMRT), the parent company of Alfamart, are poised for a significant uplift. Analysts project these prominent retailers, alongside others like PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPI), which boasts a portfolio including Sports Station and Erafone, to receive a crucial boost from strengthening year-end purchasing power, offering a fresh surge of energy for consumer issuers amidst what has been a period of weaker consumer demand.
The current investment landscape for these retail giants has been largely subdued throughout 2025. Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) reveals that AMRT shares have experienced a notable 33.16% year-to-date (YTD) decline, settling at Rp1,905 per share as of the first trading session on Wednesday, October 8, 2025. Similarly, ACES shares have plummeted 46.84% YTD to Rp420 per share, while MAPI has seen a 17.02% drop, reaching Rp1,170 per share.
However, the outlook for these retail sector stocks is set to brighten considerably for the remainder of the year. Jessica Leonardy, an Equity Analyst at OCBC Sekuritas, highlights in her research that retail issuers like AMRT possess robust prospects, underpinned by several compelling factors. She notes, “Loosening monetary policy and supportive government economic packages are expected to stimulate consumer spending,” in her research cited by Bisnis on Wednesday, October 8, 2025.
Further bolstering the positive forecast for retail stocks like AMRT are resilient same-store sales growth (SSSG), continuous outlet expansion, and solid fundamental performance. Examining their half-year financials, Alfamart (AMRT) recorded a 4.98% year-on-year (YoY) profit increase to Rp1.88 trillion in H1 2025, up from Rp1.79 trillion in H1 2024. MAPI also demonstrated strong growth, with profits rising 6.48% YoY to Rp960.92 billion in H1 2025, compared to Rp899.33 billion in the same period of 2024. Conversely, ACES faced a challenge, reporting profits of Rp292.86 billion in H1 2025, a 19.92% YoY decrease from Rp365.76 billion in H1 2024.
Given these dynamics, OCBC Sekuritas has issued a ‘Buy’ recommendation for AMRT, setting a fair value target of Rp2,900 per share. Meanwhile, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, acknowledges that the performance of retail stocks such as AMRT and ACES has been depressed thus far, primarily due to persistently weak public purchasing power and an “underwhelming” economic start to 2025.
However, Nafan anticipates a robust strengthening in the performance of retail issuers towards the year-end, driven by projected growth in the retail sales index. Speaking to Bisnis on Monday, October 6, 2025, he further elaborated on positive economic indicators, including an improving economic growth trend since Q2 2025 and anticipated government stimulus measures designed to significantly boost purchasing power. “This [government stimulus] will undoubtedly benefit domestic consumption, especially with Bank Indonesia lowering interest rates, creating a tangible reduction in borrowing cost effect,” he added.
Adding to this positive momentum, the upcoming Christmas and New Year holiday festivities are expected to provide an additional catalyst for retail sector stocks. Economic sectors, particularly retail, are forecast to reap substantial benefits from the customary surge in consumer spending and holiday travel during this period. Reflecting this optimism, Mirae Asset Sekuritas recommends an ‘Add’ for MAPI, with a target price of Rp1,440, and an ‘Accumulative Buy’ for ACES, targeting Rp555 per share.
A broader market consensus, based on recent Bloomberg data, reinforces this positive sentiment. For AMRT, an overwhelming 29 securities firms recommend a ‘Buy’, with only one suggesting a ‘Hold’. The 12-month target price for AMRT shares stands at Rp2,803.16. Similarly, ACES garners 20 ‘Buy’ recommendations, eight ‘Hold’, and one ‘Sell’, with its 12-month target price set at Rp589.21 per share. Lastly, MAPI shows strong analyst confidence, with 29 securities firms recommending a ‘Buy’ and one a ‘Hold’. Its 12-month target price is projected at Rp1,590 per share.
Disclaimer: This news article does not aim to encourage the buying or selling of stocks. Investment decisions are solely at the discretion of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
Despite a challenging year marked by significant year-to-date declines for Indonesian retail stocks like AMRT, ACES, and MAPI, analysts project a strong rebound towards the end of 2025. This anticipated uplift is driven by strengthening year-end purchasing power, loosening monetary policy, government economic stimulus, and an improving economic growth trend. These factors are expected to stimulate consumer spending and revitalize the sector.
Consequently, OCBC Sekuritas has issued a ‘Buy’ recommendation for AMRT, setting a target price of Rp2,900 per share. Mirae Asset Sekuritas recommends ‘Add’ for MAPI with a Rp1,440 target and ‘Accumulative Buy’ for ACES at Rp555 per share, also citing the boost from holiday festivities. Bloomberg data further reinforces strong ‘Buy’ consensus for all three retailers, with 12-month target prices projected around Rp2,803 for AMRT, Rp1,590 for MAPI, and Rp589 for ACES.